Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low. ...01z Update... 00z soundings from south FL continue to exhibit poor instability and warm 700mb temperatures. As a result, parcels will remain weakly buoyant, and near-coastal showers will remain too shallow for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low. ...01z Update... 00z soundings from south FL continue to exhibit poor instability and warm 700mb temperatures. As a result, parcels will remain weakly buoyant, and near-coastal showers will remain too shallow for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low. ...01z Update... 00z soundings from south FL continue to exhibit poor instability and warm 700mb temperatures. As a result, parcels will remain weakly buoyant, and near-coastal showers will remain too shallow for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low. ...01z Update... 00z soundings from south FL continue to exhibit poor instability and warm 700mb temperatures. As a result, parcels will remain weakly buoyant, and near-coastal showers will remain too shallow for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 11/24/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 23 22:02:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 23 22:02:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Broad troughing will be the predominant upper-level pattern over the coming week across the CONUS. Brief upper-level ridging will occur over the West early next week, but should break down as flow becomes quasi-zonal by the mid/late next week. Colder air, precipitation, and otherwise poorly receptive fuels should mitigate fire weather concerns across the country. Some offshore winds are expected early next week in southern California. However, current fuel status, cooler temperatures and potential precipitation preceding the event, and short duration of dry/windy conditions keeps potential for critical fire weather low. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Broad troughing will be the predominant upper-level pattern over the coming week across the CONUS. Brief upper-level ridging will occur over the West early next week, but should break down as flow becomes quasi-zonal by the mid/late next week. Colder air, precipitation, and otherwise poorly receptive fuels should mitigate fire weather concerns across the country. Some offshore winds are expected early next week in southern California. However, current fuel status, cooler temperatures and potential precipitation preceding the event, and short duration of dry/windy conditions keeps potential for critical fire weather low. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Broad troughing will be the predominant upper-level pattern over the coming week across the CONUS. Brief upper-level ridging will occur over the West early next week, but should break down as flow becomes quasi-zonal by the mid/late next week. Colder air, precipitation, and otherwise poorly receptive fuels should mitigate fire weather concerns across the country. Some offshore winds are expected early next week in southern California. However, current fuel status, cooler temperatures and potential precipitation preceding the event, and short duration of dry/windy conditions keeps potential for critical fire weather low. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Broad troughing will be the predominant upper-level pattern over the coming week across the CONUS. Brief upper-level ridging will occur over the West early next week, but should break down as flow becomes quasi-zonal by the mid/late next week. Colder air, precipitation, and otherwise poorly receptive fuels should mitigate fire weather concerns across the country. Some offshore winds are expected early next week in southern California. However, current fuel status, cooler temperatures and potential precipitation preceding the event, and short duration of dry/windy conditions keeps potential for critical fire weather low. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Broad troughing will be the predominant upper-level pattern over the coming week across the CONUS. Brief upper-level ridging will occur over the West early next week, but should break down as flow becomes quasi-zonal by the mid/late next week. Colder air, precipitation, and otherwise poorly receptive fuels should mitigate fire weather concerns across the country. Some offshore winds are expected early next week in southern California. However, current fuel status, cooler temperatures and potential precipitation preceding the event, and short duration of dry/windy conditions keeps potential for critical fire weather low. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more