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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 25 13:51:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A southern-stream mid/upper-level trough will spread eastward from the Four Corners area across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. While cool/dry continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS, some potential for elevated thunderstorms may increase late tonight into early Sunday mainly along the upper Texas coast and coastal Louisiana. This will be as air mass modification occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico, with modestly increasing moisture/ascent near and north of an evolving warm front over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage will likely remain marginal around the 10 percent forecast threshold, and no severe storms are expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/25/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more