Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Discussion... Despite modest ongoing low-level moisture return across the Texas coast into the southern Great Plains, destabilization has remained negligible due to the presence of relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates. With stronger mid/upper support for upward vertical motion (associated with a short wave trough accelerating east-northeast of the southern Rockies) generally shifting across the central Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi Valley, little change appears likely through the remainder of this forecast period. Uncertainty lingers concerning the risk for thunderstorms closer to northwestern Gulf coastal areas, near/south of an intensifying subtropical jet axis. However, based on current trends, including the lack of more appreciable boundary-layer destabilization across the northwestern/north central Gulf of Mexico to this point, the risk for thunderstorms may remain generally negligible across all but, perhaps, areas near/south of Louisiana coastal areas through 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Discussion... Despite modest ongoing low-level moisture return across the Texas coast into the southern Great Plains, destabilization has remained negligible due to the presence of relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates. With stronger mid/upper support for upward vertical motion (associated with a short wave trough accelerating east-northeast of the southern Rockies) generally shifting across the central Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi Valley, little change appears likely through the remainder of this forecast period. Uncertainty lingers concerning the risk for thunderstorms closer to northwestern Gulf coastal areas, near/south of an intensifying subtropical jet axis. However, based on current trends, including the lack of more appreciable boundary-layer destabilization across the northwestern/north central Gulf of Mexico to this point, the risk for thunderstorms may remain generally negligible across all but, perhaps, areas near/south of Louisiana coastal areas through 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 11/26/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 25 23:54:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2288 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma to central Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251858Z - 260000Z SUMMARY...The potential for periods of heavy snow (snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour) will steadily increase through the afternoon and early evening hours across northwest OK and southern to central KS. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few surface observations across south-central KS have reported periods of visibility reductions down to 0.25 mile, indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Such conditions are expected to become more common through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest water-vapor imagery shows the exit region of the 500 mb jet overspreading the TX/OK Panhandles region; concurrently, regional VWP observations have sampled strengthening flow in the 1-2 km layer - likely a mass response associated with the approaching jet. Consequently, both synoptic and mesoscale ascent (isentropic and frontogenetical lift within a warm advection regime near 850 mb) appear to be increasing over the region. Upstream radar trends support this idea with a gradually expanding swath of stratiform precipitation noted over the eastern TX Panhandle. This lift/precipitation will shift east through the afternoon and evening hours, resulting in gradual change over to primarily snow across parts of northwest OK as well as a prolonged period of moderate snowfall rates across southern KS. Strong mesoscale ascent along the 850 mb baroclinic zone, coupled with weak (< 50 J/kg MUCAPE) buoyancy, should result in periods of heavy snowfall with rates approaching 1 inch/hour. ..Moore.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38279599 36179817 35939855 35819888 35839930 35939963 36249984 36529987 36809976 39229712 39379682 39329640 38939575 38619580 38279599 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Discussion... No changes warranted for this outlook. Please see prior discussion. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z From the early to mid part of the upcoming week, an upper-level ridge will track eastward across the central U.S., accompanied by a surface anticyclone, which will foster widespread cool and moist low-level conditions. A pronounced mid-level trough is then poised to eject into the southern Plains during the mid- to late-week time frame, supporting the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated rain chances to the south-central to east-central CONUS. The aforementioned weather pattern suggests that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales in the extended period. Dry downslope flow is possible across the southern to northern High Plains through much of the week. However, low confidence for the presence of receptive fuels precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more