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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more