Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Zonal flow across the CONUS will give way to a deepening Pacific trough by D3 - Friday to D4 - Saturday. At the surface, cold air will sink southward across much of the northern CONUS. Behind this system, there is potential for an increase in offshore flow across Southern California D5 - Sunday into D6 - Monday. This may lead to brief localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Potential for precipitation also leads to uncertainty on availability of fuels. A secondary push of cold air is expected on D5 - Sunday/ D6 - Monday and will bring the colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Beyond D6, continued troughing is expected across the eastern US with ridging building across the western US. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or chances for precipitation. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Zonal flow across the CONUS will give way to a deepening Pacific trough by D3 - Friday to D4 - Saturday. At the surface, cold air will sink southward across much of the northern CONUS. Behind this system, there is potential for an increase in offshore flow across Southern California D5 - Sunday into D6 - Monday. This may lead to brief localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Potential for precipitation also leads to uncertainty on availability of fuels. A secondary push of cold air is expected on D5 - Sunday/ D6 - Monday and will bring the colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Beyond D6, continued troughing is expected across the eastern US with ridging building across the western US. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or chances for precipitation. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Zonal flow across the CONUS will give way to a deepening Pacific trough by D3 - Friday to D4 - Saturday. At the surface, cold air will sink southward across much of the northern CONUS. Behind this system, there is potential for an increase in offshore flow across Southern California D5 - Sunday into D6 - Monday. This may lead to brief localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Potential for precipitation also leads to uncertainty on availability of fuels. A secondary push of cold air is expected on D5 - Sunday/ D6 - Monday and will bring the colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Beyond D6, continued troughing is expected across the eastern US with ridging building across the western US. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or chances for precipitation. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Zonal flow across the CONUS will give way to a deepening Pacific trough by D3 - Friday to D4 - Saturday. At the surface, cold air will sink southward across much of the northern CONUS. Behind this system, there is potential for an increase in offshore flow across Southern California D5 - Sunday into D6 - Monday. This may lead to brief localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Potential for precipitation also leads to uncertainty on availability of fuels. A secondary push of cold air is expected on D5 - Sunday/ D6 - Monday and will bring the colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Beyond D6, continued troughing is expected across the eastern US with ridging building across the western US. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or chances for precipitation. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations. Further details can be found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become more pronounced across the lower 48 Thursday as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin, and broad cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the Northeast. A strong Arctic front and 1040 mb surface high will move south out of Canada bringing much colder temperatures and active winter weather the northern Rockies/Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds and moderate RH are expected within a post-frontal air mass. In combination with widespread recent precipitation, overall fire-weather concerns appear very low through Thanksgiving day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper low now over northern portions of Mexico is expected to eject northeastward and become more of an open wave as it approaches the western/central Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon/evening. With surface high pressure and offshore flow centered over the Southeast, conditions will likely remain too stable for inland thunderstorm development. Farther west, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin by early Friday morning. Despite cooling aloft, thermodynamic profiles suggest very limited buoyancy and, likewise, very low potential for lightning production. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper low now over northern portions of Mexico is expected to eject northeastward and become more of an open wave as it approaches the western/central Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon/evening. With surface high pressure and offshore flow centered over the Southeast, conditions will likely remain too stable for inland thunderstorm development. Farther west, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin by early Friday morning. Despite cooling aloft, thermodynamic profiles suggest very limited buoyancy and, likewise, very low potential for lightning production. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper low now over northern portions of Mexico is expected to eject northeastward and become more of an open wave as it approaches the western/central Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon/evening. With surface high pressure and offshore flow centered over the Southeast, conditions will likely remain too stable for inland thunderstorm development. Farther west, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin by early Friday morning. Despite cooling aloft, thermodynamic profiles suggest very limited buoyancy and, likewise, very low potential for lightning production. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper low now over northern portions of Mexico is expected to eject northeastward and become more of an open wave as it approaches the western/central Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon/evening. With surface high pressure and offshore flow centered over the Southeast, conditions will likely remain too stable for inland thunderstorm development. Farther west, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin by early Friday morning. Despite cooling aloft, thermodynamic profiles suggest very limited buoyancy and, likewise, very low potential for lightning production. ..Wendt.. 11/22/2023 Read more