Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Eastern NC... Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6 hours of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may occur across parts of the Southeast States tonight. ...01z Update... Primary short-wave trough is ejecting into the lower OH Valley early this evening as a secondary speed max digs towards northwest AR. This southern short wave will sharpen as it advances into the mid-South late tonight. 500mb flow will increase ahead of this feature across the central Gulf States with a corridor of strong flow expected to extend into the middle Atlantic. This evolution should result in a weak surface low evolving along the southern fringe of the Appalachians then tracking toward the Delmarva by sunrise. As a result, boundary-layer modification is expected across the Carolinas tonight as southern influence of a strong LLJ shifts toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Net result will be modest air mass destabilization such that a few robust storms could develop within a strongly sheared environment. A narrow band of organized convection currently extends from the FL Panhandle-southeast AL-central GA-northwest SC. This reflects somewhat stronger large-scale forcing that will shift east by 22/12z. Current thinking is similar to earlier thoughts regarding the potential for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Updraft intensity should gradually weaken across the SLGT risk this evening as large-scale forcing shifts downstream. ..Darrow.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may occur across parts of the Southeast States tonight. ...01z Update... Primary short-wave trough is ejecting into the lower OH Valley early this evening as a secondary speed max digs towards northwest AR. This southern short wave will sharpen as it advances into the mid-South late tonight. 500mb flow will increase ahead of this feature across the central Gulf States with a corridor of strong flow expected to extend into the middle Atlantic. This evolution should result in a weak surface low evolving along the southern fringe of the Appalachians then tracking toward the Delmarva by sunrise. As a result, boundary-layer modification is expected across the Carolinas tonight as southern influence of a strong LLJ shifts toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Net result will be modest air mass destabilization such that a few robust storms could develop within a strongly sheared environment. A narrow band of organized convection currently extends from the FL Panhandle-southeast AL-central GA-northwest SC. This reflects somewhat stronger large-scale forcing that will shift east by 22/12z. Current thinking is similar to earlier thoughts regarding the potential for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Updraft intensity should gradually weaken across the SLGT risk this evening as large-scale forcing shifts downstream. ..Darrow.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may occur across parts of the Southeast States tonight. ...01z Update... Primary short-wave trough is ejecting into the lower OH Valley early this evening as a secondary speed max digs towards northwest AR. This southern short wave will sharpen as it advances into the mid-South late tonight. 500mb flow will increase ahead of this feature across the central Gulf States with a corridor of strong flow expected to extend into the middle Atlantic. This evolution should result in a weak surface low evolving along the southern fringe of the Appalachians then tracking toward the Delmarva by sunrise. As a result, boundary-layer modification is expected across the Carolinas tonight as southern influence of a strong LLJ shifts toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Net result will be modest air mass destabilization such that a few robust storms could develop within a strongly sheared environment. A narrow band of organized convection currently extends from the FL Panhandle-southeast AL-central GA-northwest SC. This reflects somewhat stronger large-scale forcing that will shift east by 22/12z. Current thinking is similar to earlier thoughts regarding the potential for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Updraft intensity should gradually weaken across the SLGT risk this evening as large-scale forcing shifts downstream. ..Darrow.. 11/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may occur across parts of the Southeast States tonight. ...01z Update... Primary short-wave trough is ejecting into the lower OH Valley early this evening as a secondary speed max digs towards northwest AR. This southern short wave will sharpen as it advances into the mid-South late tonight. 500mb flow will increase ahead of this feature across the central Gulf States with a corridor of strong flow expected to extend into the middle Atlantic. This evolution should result in a weak surface low evolving along the southern fringe of the Appalachians then tracking toward the Delmarva by sunrise. As a result, boundary-layer modification is expected across the Carolinas tonight as southern influence of a strong LLJ shifts toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Net result will be modest air mass destabilization such that a few robust storms could develop within a strongly sheared environment. A narrow band of organized convection currently extends from the FL Panhandle-southeast AL-central GA-northwest SC. This reflects somewhat stronger large-scale forcing that will shift east by 22/12z. Current thinking is similar to earlier thoughts regarding the potential for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Updraft intensity should gradually weaken across the SLGT risk this evening as large-scale forcing shifts downstream. ..Darrow.. 11/22/2023 Read more

MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212326Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of the threat, a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling as the low-level jet shifts northeastward. In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1 SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk, with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor along and east of the cold front. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346 31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604 30998608 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 21 23:28:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212326Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of the threat, a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling as the low-level jet shifts northeastward. In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1 SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk, with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor along and east of the cold front. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346 31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604 30998608 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 21 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Brief quasi-zonal flow aloft during the middle of the week will quickly give way to a large trough digging into the West. By the weekend, broad troughing aloft will envelop most of the CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement about a cutoff low developing in the southern California vicinity around the start of next week. At the surface, cold air will move into the northern/central Plains late this week and make some progress into the southern Plains Friday/Saturday. A secondary push of cold air will occur on Sunday/Monday and bring colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or precipitation. ...Southern California... Models continue to suggest weak to possibly moderate offshore winds Sunday into Monday. Fuels will be drier than the previous offshore wind event. However, it is not clear that dry fuels will be widespread enough for a greater fire weather risk. Further, as the cutoff low develops, there may be potential for light precipitation in some areas within the region. When coupled with upper-level wind support that is not expected to be overly strong, the potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Brief quasi-zonal flow aloft during the middle of the week will quickly give way to a large trough digging into the West. By the weekend, broad troughing aloft will envelop most of the CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement about a cutoff low developing in the southern California vicinity around the start of next week. At the surface, cold air will move into the northern/central Plains late this week and make some progress into the southern Plains Friday/Saturday. A secondary push of cold air will occur on Sunday/Monday and bring colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or precipitation. ...Southern California... Models continue to suggest weak to possibly moderate offshore winds Sunday into Monday. Fuels will be drier than the previous offshore wind event. However, it is not clear that dry fuels will be widespread enough for a greater fire weather risk. Further, as the cutoff low develops, there may be potential for light precipitation in some areas within the region. When coupled with upper-level wind support that is not expected to be overly strong, the potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Brief quasi-zonal flow aloft during the middle of the week will quickly give way to a large trough digging into the West. By the weekend, broad troughing aloft will envelop most of the CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement about a cutoff low developing in the southern California vicinity around the start of next week. At the surface, cold air will move into the northern/central Plains late this week and make some progress into the southern Plains Friday/Saturday. A secondary push of cold air will occur on Sunday/Monday and bring colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or precipitation. ...Southern California... Models continue to suggest weak to possibly moderate offshore winds Sunday into Monday. Fuels will be drier than the previous offshore wind event. However, it is not clear that dry fuels will be widespread enough for a greater fire weather risk. Further, as the cutoff low develops, there may be potential for light precipitation in some areas within the region. When coupled with upper-level wind support that is not expected to be overly strong, the potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Brief quasi-zonal flow aloft during the middle of the week will quickly give way to a large trough digging into the West. By the weekend, broad troughing aloft will envelop most of the CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement about a cutoff low developing in the southern California vicinity around the start of next week. At the surface, cold air will move into the northern/central Plains late this week and make some progress into the southern Plains Friday/Saturday. A secondary push of cold air will occur on Sunday/Monday and bring colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or precipitation. ...Southern California... Models continue to suggest weak to possibly moderate offshore winds Sunday into Monday. Fuels will be drier than the previous offshore wind event. However, it is not clear that dry fuels will be widespread enough for a greater fire weather risk. Further, as the cutoff low develops, there may be potential for light precipitation in some areas within the region. When coupled with upper-level wind support that is not expected to be overly strong, the potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Brief quasi-zonal flow aloft during the middle of the week will quickly give way to a large trough digging into the West. By the weekend, broad troughing aloft will envelop most of the CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement about a cutoff low developing in the southern California vicinity around the start of next week. At the surface, cold air will move into the northern/central Plains late this week and make some progress into the southern Plains Friday/Saturday. A secondary push of cold air will occur on Sunday/Monday and bring colder air all the way to the Gulf Coast. Overall, fire weather concerns will remain limited in most areas due to cool/cold temperatures, light winds, or precipitation. ...Southern California... Models continue to suggest weak to possibly moderate offshore winds Sunday into Monday. Fuels will be drier than the previous offshore wind event. However, it is not clear that dry fuels will be widespread enough for a greater fire weather risk. Further, as the cutoff low develops, there may be potential for light precipitation in some areas within the region. When coupled with upper-level wind support that is not expected to be overly strong, the potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more