Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Beneath cold mid-level air which continues to spread inland of the Pacific coast, insolation is contributing to pockets of weak boundary-layer destabilization across coastal into interior central California, and portions of the Great Basin into northern Rockies. It still appears that this will lead to isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm development by late afternoon, which may persist into early evening before waning. Thereafter, one significant mid-level cold core within the large-scale troughing is still forecast to approach southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas late tonight. This will be accompanied by potential for additional weak thunderstorm development, which could linger beyond 12Z Wednesday. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Beneath cold mid-level air which continues to spread inland of the Pacific coast, insolation is contributing to pockets of weak boundary-layer destabilization across coastal into interior central California, and portions of the Great Basin into northern Rockies. It still appears that this will lead to isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm development by late afternoon, which may persist into early evening before waning. Thereafter, one significant mid-level cold core within the large-scale troughing is still forecast to approach southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas late tonight. This will be accompanied by potential for additional weak thunderstorm development, which could linger beyond 12Z Wednesday. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Beneath cold mid-level air which continues to spread inland of the Pacific coast, insolation is contributing to pockets of weak boundary-layer destabilization across coastal into interior central California, and portions of the Great Basin into northern Rockies. It still appears that this will lead to isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm development by late afternoon, which may persist into early evening before waning. Thereafter, one significant mid-level cold core within the large-scale troughing is still forecast to approach southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas late tonight. This will be accompanied by potential for additional weak thunderstorm development, which could linger beyond 12Z Wednesday. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Beneath cold mid-level air which continues to spread inland of the Pacific coast, insolation is contributing to pockets of weak boundary-layer destabilization across coastal into interior central California, and portions of the Great Basin into northern Rockies. It still appears that this will lead to isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm development by late afternoon, which may persist into early evening before waning. Thereafter, one significant mid-level cold core within the large-scale troughing is still forecast to approach southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas late tonight. This will be accompanied by potential for additional weak thunderstorm development, which could linger beyond 12Z Wednesday. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A localized area of strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley vicinity late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... A significant short wave perturbation, splitting away from one stronger branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is forecast to contribute to a deepening cyclone while digging southeastward through this period. As it approaches another branch of stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that a downstream perturbation within that stream will accelerate inland across southern California and northern Baja by early Wednesday. A rapid east-northeastward progression is then forecast to continue, through the crest of initially more amplified large-scale mid/upper ridging across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi/Ozark Plateau by 12Z Thursday. At the same time, downstream large-scale mid-level troughing off the southern Atlantic Seaboard appears likely to remain amplified, with some further amplification southward to the east of the Bahamas possible, with continuing cyclogenesis across the western Atlantic. Northerly flow and subsidence in the wake of this regime has contributed to considerable drying across much of the Gulf Basin into Caribbean. While some modification is ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, model forecast soundings indicate that boundary-layer moistening will remain rather modest and shallow, beneath warm and capping layers in the lower/mid-troposphere spreading east of the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. ...Ozark Plateau/adjacent Great Plains and Mississippi Valley... It does appear that surface low pressure will deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies, northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. This likely will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level return flow and at least some moistening. However, if, and exactly where, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization become sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition remains unclear based on latest model output. Guidance continues to suggest that any thunderstorm development will probably be rooted within the evolving lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime across and east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau vicinity late Wednesday evening through early Thursday, though probabilities at any particular location appear low (on the order of 10-20 percent). It might not be out of the question that initial thunderstorm development could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail somewhere across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley, but this potential stills seems rather conditional at this point. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. ..Hart.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. ..Hart.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. ..Hart.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ..Western States... A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the forecast period. This will lead to occasional clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ. Overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain quite sparse. ..Hart.. 02/20/2024 Read more