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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Lawns look rough in New Orleans, but they may begin showing signs of recovery in March as they emerge from dormancy. NOLA.com (New Orleans, La.), Feb 21, 2024

Winter pasture growth in East Texas improved with recent moisture and warmer temperatures. Heavy rains continued to fall in some areas. Anderson County reported pastures were too wet to work for the most part. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to poor. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate. Ponds and creeks were full, with some running over the spillway. Cattle prices were high; some areas had low numbers due to rain. Hay supplies remained tight. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with supplementation taking place. Wild pig activity continued to increase. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more