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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

Some businesses in northern Wisconsin received below normal snowfall this winter and may qualify for a federal disaster loan after the mild winter brought less snow than usual. The lack of snow has affected travel and recreation businesses that depend on it for activities such as downhill and cross-country skiing, snowshoeing and snowmobiling. WBAY TV (Green Bay, Wis.), Feb 20, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 21 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 21 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Friday through D5/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Potential for Critical to Elevated fire weather conditions may return to the High Plains on D6/Monday. Late D5/Sunday into D6/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern has become less amplified and progressive in recent runs, with the upper-level ridge lingering across the central US keeping lee trough development weaker. Indications are that the pattern will still favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Trends for this period will be monitored for inclusion of probabilities in subsequent updates. Late in the period D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and subsequent strong flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring the potential for widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Friday through D5/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Potential for Critical to Elevated fire weather conditions may return to the High Plains on D6/Monday. Late D5/Sunday into D6/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern has become less amplified and progressive in recent runs, with the upper-level ridge lingering across the central US keeping lee trough development weaker. Indications are that the pattern will still favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Trends for this period will be monitored for inclusion of probabilities in subsequent updates. Late in the period D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and subsequent strong flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring the potential for widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Friday through D5/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Potential for Critical to Elevated fire weather conditions may return to the High Plains on D6/Monday. Late D5/Sunday into D6/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern has become less amplified and progressive in recent runs, with the upper-level ridge lingering across the central US keeping lee trough development weaker. Indications are that the pattern will still favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Trends for this period will be monitored for inclusion of probabilities in subsequent updates. Late in the period D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and subsequent strong flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring the potential for widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe hail. ...20Z Update... In advance of a short wave trough which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, a deep plume of warm/dry air continues to overspread much of the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, coincident with large-scale mid-level ridging. Beneath this regime, surface dew points have only reach the mid/upper 50sF across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, though they have risen into the lower/mid 60s near the coast of Mexico into parts of the Texas coastal plain. Even where surface dew points are highest, the boundary-layer moistening remains confined to a rather shallow layer based on morning observed and forecast soundings. Still, limited low-level level moistening appears underway on strengthening southerly return flow across southern/eastern Texas toward the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, beneath the warm, capping air aloft. Latest model output continues to indicate that associated potential instability will contribute to at least low probabilities for thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight, generally focused along a couple zones of enhanced low/mid-level warm advection and/or weak frontogenetic forcing. Some machine learning forecast guidance continues to suggest low probabilities for severe hail may accompany stronger storms tonight. However, latest available forecast soundings from the NAM and Rapid Refresh do not appear overly supportive of this potential. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/ ...Southern MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over southern CA. This feature and its associated mid-level jet max will track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS valley by late tonight. Ahead of this system, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm/moist advection into parts of MO/IL, leading to a zone of modest instability after dark from southeast KS across much of southern MO. Forecast soundings from several 12z models indicate the boundary-layer remains capped, suggesting the prospects for robust thunderstorm development are rather low. However, a few morning CAM solutions do show a storm or two overnight, which given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear would be capable of hail. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area to denote the conditional risk. ...Northern IL/IN... A surface warm front is expected to become established from central MO into central IL later today. Low-level winds are expected to be rather weak in vicinity of the boundary, but flow into the mid-levels should result in elevated warm-advection and the initiation of a few thunderstorms after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for hail in the strongest cells, although the potential for severe-caliber hail appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe hail. ...20Z Update... In advance of a short wave trough which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, a deep plume of warm/dry air continues to overspread much of the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, coincident with large-scale mid-level ridging. Beneath this regime, surface dew points have only reach the mid/upper 50sF across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, though they have risen into the lower/mid 60s near the coast of Mexico into parts of the Texas coastal plain. Even where surface dew points are highest, the boundary-layer moistening remains confined to a rather shallow layer based on morning observed and forecast soundings. Still, limited low-level level moistening appears underway on strengthening southerly return flow across southern/eastern Texas toward the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, beneath the warm, capping air aloft. Latest model output continues to indicate that associated potential instability will contribute to at least low probabilities for thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight, generally focused along a couple zones of enhanced low/mid-level warm advection and/or weak frontogenetic forcing. Some machine learning forecast guidance continues to suggest low probabilities for severe hail may accompany stronger storms tonight. However, latest available forecast soundings from the NAM and Rapid Refresh do not appear overly supportive of this potential. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/ ...Southern MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over southern CA. This feature and its associated mid-level jet max will track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS valley by late tonight. Ahead of this system, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm/moist advection into parts of MO/IL, leading to a zone of modest instability after dark from southeast KS across much of southern MO. Forecast soundings from several 12z models indicate the boundary-layer remains capped, suggesting the prospects for robust thunderstorm development are rather low. However, a few morning CAM solutions do show a storm or two overnight, which given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear would be capable of hail. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area to denote the conditional risk. ...Northern IL/IN... A surface warm front is expected to become established from central MO into central IL later today. Low-level winds are expected to be rather weak in vicinity of the boundary, but flow into the mid-levels should result in elevated warm-advection and the initiation of a few thunderstorms after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for hail in the strongest cells, although the potential for severe-caliber hail appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe hail. ...20Z Update... In advance of a short wave trough which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, a deep plume of warm/dry air continues to overspread much of the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, coincident with large-scale mid-level ridging. Beneath this regime, surface dew points have only reach the mid/upper 50sF across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, though they have risen into the lower/mid 60s near the coast of Mexico into parts of the Texas coastal plain. Even where surface dew points are highest, the boundary-layer moistening remains confined to a rather shallow layer based on morning observed and forecast soundings. Still, limited low-level level moistening appears underway on strengthening southerly return flow across southern/eastern Texas toward the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, beneath the warm, capping air aloft. Latest model output continues to indicate that associated potential instability will contribute to at least low probabilities for thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight, generally focused along a couple zones of enhanced low/mid-level warm advection and/or weak frontogenetic forcing. Some machine learning forecast guidance continues to suggest low probabilities for severe hail may accompany stronger storms tonight. However, latest available forecast soundings from the NAM and Rapid Refresh do not appear overly supportive of this potential. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/ ...Southern MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over southern CA. This feature and its associated mid-level jet max will track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS valley by late tonight. Ahead of this system, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm/moist advection into parts of MO/IL, leading to a zone of modest instability after dark from southeast KS across much of southern MO. Forecast soundings from several 12z models indicate the boundary-layer remains capped, suggesting the prospects for robust thunderstorm development are rather low. However, a few morning CAM solutions do show a storm or two overnight, which given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear would be capable of hail. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area to denote the conditional risk. ...Northern IL/IN... A surface warm front is expected to become established from central MO into central IL later today. Low-level winds are expected to be rather weak in vicinity of the boundary, but flow into the mid-levels should result in elevated warm-advection and the initiation of a few thunderstorms after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for hail in the strongest cells, although the potential for severe-caliber hail appears marginal. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe hail. ...20Z Update... In advance of a short wave trough which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, a deep plume of warm/dry air continues to overspread much of the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, coincident with large-scale mid-level ridging. Beneath this regime, surface dew points have only reach the mid/upper 50sF across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, though they have risen into the lower/mid 60s near the coast of Mexico into parts of the Texas coastal plain. Even where surface dew points are highest, the boundary-layer moistening remains confined to a rather shallow layer based on morning observed and forecast soundings. Still, limited low-level level moistening appears underway on strengthening southerly return flow across southern/eastern Texas toward the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley, beneath the warm, capping air aloft. Latest model output continues to indicate that associated potential instability will contribute to at least low probabilities for thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight, generally focused along a couple zones of enhanced low/mid-level warm advection and/or weak frontogenetic forcing. Some machine learning forecast guidance continues to suggest low probabilities for severe hail may accompany stronger storms tonight. However, latest available forecast soundings from the NAM and Rapid Refresh do not appear overly supportive of this potential. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/ ...Southern MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over southern CA. This feature and its associated mid-level jet max will track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS valley by late tonight. Ahead of this system, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm/moist advection into parts of MO/IL, leading to a zone of modest instability after dark from southeast KS across much of southern MO. Forecast soundings from several 12z models indicate the boundary-layer remains capped, suggesting the prospects for robust thunderstorm development are rather low. However, a few morning CAM solutions do show a storm or two overnight, which given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear would be capable of hail. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area to denote the conditional risk. ...Northern IL/IN... A surface warm front is expected to become established from central MO into central IL later today. Low-level winds are expected to be rather weak in vicinity of the boundary, but flow into the mid-levels should result in elevated warm-advection and the initiation of a few thunderstorms after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for hail in the strongest cells, although the potential for severe-caliber hail appears marginal. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z No changes are needed for the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more