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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

Dry weather continued with no significant rainfall expected and near-normal temperatures anticipated in the upcoming week. Most pastures were still in winter dormancy, but cool-season grasses and forbs were thriving. Overgrazed pastures were filled with annual winter forbs, including bluebonnets and wild mint. Conditions were expected to remain ideal for early spring planting for the rest of February. Oats and wheat looked good to excellent, and livestock markets held high to steady. Corn planting was set to start soon, and producers continued supplemental feeding their livestock and wildlife. Landowners were preparing to seed pastures. Rivers and creeks were noticeably elevated but not enough to fill dry creeks. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 Moisture conditions persist in some parts of Southwest Texas, thanks to ongoing rainfall. The rain has maintained favorable pasture and rangeland conditions, ensuring the well-being of livestock. The fall and winter rains have been crucial in sustaining producers’ operations for the past few months. With good soil moisture, livestock feeding activities were ongoing. However, despite the green appearance of pastures, they remain short. Producers began preparing their fields for spring planting, and the outlook for wheat and oats was positive. Nighttime temperatures were cold, while daytime highs reached the mid-70s. Producers faced challenges as they diligently searched for and paid more for hay. Producers were urged to stay vigilant and make strategic decisions in light of the weather conditions to ensure the sustainability of their operations. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024

Rain fell across multiple counties in Southeast Texas, and warmer temperatures spurred ryegrass and clover growth. Moisture was good in the pastures, and producers started spraying fields and preparing for spring. Current rainfall replenished stock tanks and ponds. Rangeland and pasture ratings varied from excellent to poor. Livestock appeared to be in good body condition, and markets remained strong. Cattle held good condition as producers continued heavy supplemental feeding for their herds. Local markets opened with a need for all classes of calves and yearlings. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 The arctic blast swept across Southeast Texas, delaying the production of winter pastures. Producers continued supplemental and hay feeding and busting ice to ensure access to water for their cattle herds. Surface water was extremely low and affected the production of crawfish producers. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 23, 2024

Rain was scattered across West Central Texas, with some areas receiving over 2 inches. Temperatures were found in the lower 30s to lower 80s. Small grains were growing slowly. Wheat and oats were improving each week. Field preparation for spring crops began. Many stock tanks and ponds caught water from the recent rain, but more was needed to replenish it fully. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 Rain fell over West Central Texas, allowing soil moisture to increase and be in good condition. The rain and warmer temperatures allowed small grain fields to improve. Wheat looked good and started creating good grazing for livestock. Rain was still needed to fill ponds for livestock water supplies. Although pastures and rangelands were greening up, producers continued heavy supplemental feeding for their herds. Cattle prices at local sale barns continued to rise, and cattle were holding good body condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024 Light snow and rain were scattered across the district and accompanied by frigid temperatures, with three days below freezing. Soil conditions remained steady, but moisture was appreciated as it was received. Small grain fields were set back due to the freezing conditions. Wheat and oat pastures were struggling and in dire need of rain for cool-season annuals and native grasslands. The polar vortex challenged livestock producers who were feeding and busting ice for their livestock. Supplemental and hay feeding increased in response to the cold weather. Despite the freezing temperatures, cattle and wildlife were in decent condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 23, 2024

Cool, cloudy conditions were prevalent across Far West Texas. Daytime highs were reported in the mid-70s, and nighttime lows in the mid-20s. Conditions remain very dry and hard. A cold front moved through the area over the weekend, followed by seasonally warmer temperatures. Producers prepared the ground to plant and started drip irrigation for cotton and alfalfa. Wheat was growing and preparing to bloom. Cotton and milo production was expected to be lower than average. Livestock and beef cattle producers continued supplemental feeding regimens as rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate due to lack of moisture. Kidding season continued for goats and lambs. A few small-scale wildfires were reported as winds were high and conditions continued warming up. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 Temperatures in Far West Texas averaged highs of 70 with overnight lows in the upper 30s. The rain was in a narrow strip through the east-northeastern corner of the region. Tillage operations have continued for most growers this past week. Winter wheat was in fair condition due to moisture and warm weather. Underground moisture was non-existent. Many fields have yet to germinate. Many producers were questioning whether to turn irrigation wells on this season. Moisture improved minor grain conditions. Pecan harvest continued to be slower than anticipated, although most orchards were previously harvested. Ground preparation continued for the upcoming season; it’s anticipated acreage will be up due to the water supply from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Livestock were in fair condition. Lambing and kidding season began. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024 Temperatures in Far West Texas remain below average, with nighttime temperatures dropping below 20 degrees and daytime temperatures rising to the mid-40s. The district received a slight mist and little precipitation. The strong winter storm that affected much of the state had only a brief hold on the Big Bend region, with temperatures dropping into the single digits overnight. Rangeland conditions remained steady, and soil moisture remained short to adequate. The grass was dormant, and pastures remained extremely bare except for a few winter weeds, which livestock consumed quickly. Livestock were in fair condition as producers continued supplemental and hay feeding and ensured they had access to water. Cotton has been harvested and most pecans have been harvested, although some pecan orchards were late harvesting. Ground preparation was in progress. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 23, 2024

As much as 4 inches of wet snow swept across different areas of the Texas Panhandle. The response from wheat growth was evident as soon as soil temperatures began to increase. Producers started some pre-plant tillage for summer crops. Daytime temperatures gradually increased. However, additional moisture was needed to replenish the upper soil moisture profile, especially in fields planted with small grains, cover crops, or improved and native grass pastures. Supplemental feeding continued for cattle on range. Overall, soil conditions were reported from adequate to short. Pasture and rangelands were reported to be fair to very poor. Winter wheat was reported as good to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 The Texas Panhandle remained very dry. The weather modified, with some temperatures reaching the 70s but still no substantial moisture. Stocker cattle have been moved because of limited pasture. Supplemental feeding continued for cattle on pastures and rangelands. Overall, soil conditions were reported from adequate to very short. Pasture and rangelands were reported to be fair to very poor. Winter wheat was reported as fair to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024 The Panhandle region remained extremely dry. Temperatures were in the single digits, with the wind chill below zero. There was no farming activity. The cold weather increased the amount of supplemental cattle feeding to help maintain body condition and meet energy requirements. Labor increased as ice had to be broken on tanks to supply water to cattle. Overall, soil conditions were reported as ranging from adequate to very poor. Pasture and rangelands were reported to be fair to very poor. Winter wheat was reported as fair to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 23, 2024

Wind and sunshine dominated in Central Texas and began to dry out the wet soil conditions. Winter pastures, specifically ryegrass, started to grow well. Planted winter pastures were good and grazed. Stock tank levels were full, for the most part, but additional rain and runoff were needed to help drought conditions. Weeds emerged. Several wheat fields needed to be top-dressed before corn planting. Wheat continued to grow well, even with excessive moisture. Rust was beginning to show in light occurrences, and Hessian flies continued to be a concern. Cattle remained in good body condition, with producers feeding hay and other supplements. Weaned cattle were pulled. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 21, 2024 Although some regions of Central Texas experienced rainfall, it hasn’t been widespread enough to bring the entire district out of drought. Some stock tanks were filling, but lake levels were still low. If lakes do not catch some significant rainfall by summer, there will be little to no irrigation this year. Warmer temperatures and good soil moisture were improving pastures and small grains. Winter pastures were starting to develop. Many producers had limited access to begin fieldwork in wet conditions, but they were getting planters ready for corn planting when the fields dried up. Wheat and oats were being grazed. Cattle producers were busy feeding hay and other supplements to maintain good body condition in their herd. Cattle prices were in good to fair condition, and calving season had started. There were reports that Hessian fly continued to be identified in some wheat fields. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 6, 2024 Central Texas experienced consistent below-freezing temperatures, but most counties also received adequate rain, providing some drought relief. A few counties reported needing additional rain to relieve extreme drought conditions and replenish stock tanks and natural bodies of water. Native pastures were in fair condition, with some counties reporting a die-off of various weeds and trees due to extreme temperatures. There were some reports of prolific weed pressure in neglected pastures. Fieldwork halted due to freezing temperatures but was quickly back underway when the weather permitted. Wheat and oats were considered good quality, although growth has slowed, and producers expected to see some freeze damage. The carinata crop planted in early fall and into December was substantially freeze-damaged and not expected to survive. Hessian fly larvae continued to be observed in wheat varieties. Supplemental feeding was being carried out for all classes of livestock, and livestock were in fair condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 23, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 20 22:21:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 20 22:21:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to D7/Monday. Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of south-central Texas. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development. This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more