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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are probable across eastern NM into west TX. Early-morning surface observations show a weak lee trough/thermal axis draped along the southern High Plains. This feature is likely the result of persistent downslope warming/drying amid a nearly zonal flow regime over the central/southern Rockies. This flow regime will persist for much of today as the upper ridge shifts east. While the approach of the ridge will suppress substantial deepening of the lee trough, breezy and dry conditions are likely in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph are expected with diurnal RH reductions into the upper teens to low 20s. Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected - primarily in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains across east/northeast NM. Elevated conditions may extend as far east as the NM/TX border. Despite this potential, recent fuel guidance continues to indicate that ERCs are at or below the 50th percentile across this region, which precludes introducing fire weather headlines. However, the warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will likely help dry finer fuels ahead of a more robust wind event on D2/Wednesday. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks... Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR by early Thursday morning. As the disturbance translates eastward, a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the KS/OK border overnight. Southerly low-level flow intensifying with the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily after 06z over southern KS. A strong capping inversion located over OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface wave. Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks... Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR by early Thursday morning. As the disturbance translates eastward, a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the KS/OK border overnight. Southerly low-level flow intensifying with the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily after 06z over southern KS. A strong capping inversion located over OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface wave. Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks... Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR by early Thursday morning. As the disturbance translates eastward, a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the KS/OK border overnight. Southerly low-level flow intensifying with the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily after 06z over southern KS. A strong capping inversion located over OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface wave. Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks... Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR by early Thursday morning. As the disturbance translates eastward, a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the KS/OK border overnight. Southerly low-level flow intensifying with the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily after 06z over southern KS. A strong capping inversion located over OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface wave. Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks... Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR by early Thursday morning. As the disturbance translates eastward, a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the KS/OK border overnight. Southerly low-level flow intensifying with the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily after 06z over southern KS. A strong capping inversion located over OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface wave. Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 Read more