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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 24 19:19:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 24 18:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0291 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 241628Z - 241830Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow with potential for 1" per hour rates and low visibility across northeastern Iowa over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A convective band has been moving steadily northeast through central Iowa this morning. Temperatures near the band are hovering around to just below freezing. Lightning activity has begun to decrease in this band, with CAM guidance indicating the band should weaken with time as it moves northeastward. Even so, given the heavy nature of this band, temperatures will likely lower with wet-bulb cooling within the heaviest precipitation. Temperatures across northeastern Iowa are in the low 30s, with dew points in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Periods of heavy snow will be possible as a result, with rates approaching 1"/hr and low visibility (given surface winds around 20-25 mph). ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43439427 42889411 42389321 42119257 41989200 42259182 42599166 43359190 43479217 43539287 43489403 43439427 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more