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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CRW TO 20 NNE CRW. WW 29 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 281500Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175. ..GRAMS..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...RLX...PBZ...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-039-043-045-059-099-281500- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN LOGAN MINGO WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CRW TO 20 NNE CRW. WW 29 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 281500Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175. ..GRAMS..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...RLX...PBZ...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-039-043-045-059-099-281500- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN LOGAN MINGO WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX... Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of 15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX. ...Central Appalachians... Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph) are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25% over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received less rainfall over the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more