Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will be present over much of the central CONUS into northern Mexico on Monday. Multiple embedded mid-level perturbations should exist within the larger upper trough. One such shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest through the day, and another over northern Mexico and the southern High Plains should eject towards the lower/mid MS Valley through the period. The primary surface low should be located over eastern NE/KS Monday morning, and it is forecast to develop east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest by Monday evening. A weak, secondary surface low may develop across the ArkLaTex and move towards the Mid-South through Monday night as strong ascent associated with the southern/basal portion of the upper trough overspreads the lower MS Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A line of generally sub-severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning from portions of central TX into eastern OK and the Ozarks. Strong low-level mass response associated with a southerly low-level jet is expected to aid in the northward transport of generally mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints across parts of the lower MS Valley ahead of the early-day convection. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain rather poor, the increasing low-level moisture combined with modest daytime heating should support the development of weak instability by early Monday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity is anticipated Monday afternoon/evening across LA/southern AR and into MS as these thunderstorms encounter somewhat greater instability. Enhanced mid/upper-level flow attendant to the upper trough will easily support 45-60 kt of deep-layer shear and robust updraft organization. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the line of intensifying convection as it moves eastward across the lower MS Valley, although low-level shear also appears strong enough to support line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes. The potential for pre-frontal supercells developing along a weak surface trough or confluence lines remains highly uncertain. Most high-resolution guidance suggests that the QLCS should maintain its intensity, and perhaps even strengthen Monday evening/night across MS as a southerly low-level jet increases to around 45-60 kt. A narrow corridor of greater severe/damaging-wind potential may exist across parts of northeastern LA/southeastern AR into central MS along and just south of the effective warm front. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include greater severe-wind probabilities at this time. A nocturnal tornado threat should continue with the organized QLCS as it moves across MS and towards western AL Monday night through early Tuesday morning, eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Western Iowa and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for somewhat organized thunderstorms. Isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. Based on latest guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted westward in IA where a better signal for modest destabilization exists Monday afternoon. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more