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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241903Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general. As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX, as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly, perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084 37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915 37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903 32799964 32590007 32580108 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK... 19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward, with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk. Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening. Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country.. Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. Read more