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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more