SPC Apr 4, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more