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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-069-075-083-089-095-101-107- 109-117-119-125-127-031640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE LEVY MARION NASSAU ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ850-031640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-069-075-083-089-095-101-107- 109-117-119-125-127-031640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE LEVY MARION NASSAU ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ850-031640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CTY TO 10 NNE CTY TO 30 NE CTY. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-031640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE AMZ450-GMZ765-031640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more