Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. Despite fairly high confidence in the development of a north-south corridor of locally elevated meteorological conditions from south-central NE through central KS this afternoon, marginal fuels limit confidence in any large-fire potential -- precluding Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large scale upper-low will amplify across the eastern CONUS today. An occluded surface low near Lake Michigan will result in a tight pressure gradient across much of the Plains. This pressure gradient combined with a deeply mixed atmosphere and strong winds aloft will lead to strong northerly winds across the central Plains from Nebraska to Oklahoma. In addition, minimum relative humidity will be around 20 to 30 percent. Despite these conditions favorable for fire weather in the central Plains, no areas are needed due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0367 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 85... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0905 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north FL and extreme southeast GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 85... Valid 031405Z - 031530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and tornado threat may continue across parts of north FL. A local extension in area of Tornado Watch 85 is possible. Or, a new downstream Watch could be issued. DISCUSSION...A cluster/loosely organized line of convection is ongoing across north FL and far southeast GA this morning ahead of a cold front. While the 12Z sounding from JAX showed substantial capping/inhibition and visible satellite indicates some anvil shading, continued diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of the line of thunderstorms should help gradually erode most of the remaining MLCIN. Weak instability will likely be sufficient to maintain convective structure and intensity given ample low-level and deep-layer shear present on recent VWPs from KJAX. With around 200-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present, embedded updraft rotation within the line should continue to pose some threat for a few tornadoes through the rest of the morning and perhaps into the afternoon, as convection spreads east-southeastward across the north FL Peninsula. Occasional damaging winds will also remain a concern as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. A local extension in area of Tornado Watch 85, or a new downstream Watch, will need to be considered for parts of north FL. ..Gleason.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29608366 30278296 30698203 30648150 30248135 29828117 29218095 28718191 28768270 29288357 29608366 Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LFT TO 20 SSW MCB TO 30 NNW PIB TO 15 W MEI TO 40 S CBM TO 20 ESE CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-103-105-117-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-091-103-109-147-260640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION NOXUBEE PEARL RIVER WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW CTY TO 20 NNE CTY TO 30 ENE AYS TO 35 SSW SAV TO 45 SE SAV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-029-031540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DIXIE GAC025-039-049-127-191-305-031540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN MCINTOSH WAYNE AMZ354-450-GMZ765-031540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF TO 30 NW CTY TO 30 ESE VLD TO 20 WSW AYS TO 35 SW SAV TO 40 WSW CHS. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-029-047-067-121-123-031440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DIXIE HAMILTON LAFAYETTE SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC025-029-039-049-051-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305- 031440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE SCC013-053-031440- Read more

MD 0366 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 85... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Florida into southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 85... Valid 031234Z - 031330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues. SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado remain possible across Tornado Watch 85 the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Much of the convection form the eastern FL Panhandle into southeast GA has become more disorganized this morning. 12z RAOBs from JAX and CHS indicate substantial MLCIN and weak instability. Nevertheless, vertical shear remains quite strong. With some modest heating the next couple of hours downstream from ongoing convection, an isolated risk for damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado will continue across Tornado Watch 85. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32358044 30178215 29358316 29748377 30188372 31328281 32218211 32498164 32588098 32358044 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024 Read more