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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeast, that have missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last 1-2 weeks. This includes parts of far southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle. Here, diurnal heating will contribute to 20-30 percent afternoon RH, coincident with breezy/gusty post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph). While these conditions would ordinarily warrant Elevated highlights, fuels generally do not appear supportive of large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeast, that have missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last 1-2 weeks. This includes parts of far southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle. Here, diurnal heating will contribute to 20-30 percent afternoon RH, coincident with breezy/gusty post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph). While these conditions would ordinarily warrant Elevated highlights, fuels generally do not appear supportive of large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeast, that have missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last 1-2 weeks. This includes parts of far southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle. Here, diurnal heating will contribute to 20-30 percent afternoon RH, coincident with breezy/gusty post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph). While these conditions would ordinarily warrant Elevated highlights, fuels generally do not appear supportive of large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeast, that have missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last 1-2 weeks. This includes parts of far southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle. Here, diurnal heating will contribute to 20-30 percent afternoon RH, coincident with breezy/gusty post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph). While these conditions would ordinarily warrant Elevated highlights, fuels generally do not appear supportive of large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeast, that have missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last 1-2 weeks. This includes parts of far southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle. Here, diurnal heating will contribute to 20-30 percent afternoon RH, coincident with breezy/gusty post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph). While these conditions would ordinarily warrant Elevated highlights, fuels generally do not appear supportive of large-fire potential. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

MD 0375 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of New Hampshire and Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 040543Z - 041145Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with rates near 1-2 inches per hour will lift northward across western and coastal Maine and New Hampshire over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A large area of precipitation is ongoing across New England tonight within an area of strong warm advection aloft on the east side of a midlevel upper low centered over the Great Lakes vicinity. A band of strong 850 mb frontogenesis will lift north with time into early morning, providing ascent through a deep saturated layer aloft. Near-surface temperatures may hover close to freezing across portions of the region, though most of the vertical temperatures profile will remain sub-freezing supporting snow. Given strong forcing and a dendritic growth layer around 2.5-3 kft deep, snowfall rates are expected to increase to 1-2 inches per hour over the next 1-2 hours and persist into early morning. ..Leitman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 43917200 45177103 45417073 45366958 45006815 44776781 44376770 43916795 42707003 42837111 42897205 43347236 43917200 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more