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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 4 23:18:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 4 23:18:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Nevada into the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity of south central Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041911Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One or two supercells may gradually develop within a narrow pre-frontal corridor, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind by 3-5 PM MDT. While the need for a watch is not currently anticipated, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis suggests that more rapid boundary-layer destabilization is now underway, particularly in a narrow pre-frontal corridor west of Twin Falls toward the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity, west of Sun Valley. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation and low-level warm advection, beneath cool mid-levels which may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg within the next few hours. As this occurs, models indicate that frontogenetic forcing for ascent will also strengthen along this corridor, downstream of a developing frontal wave migrating northeastward out of the Great Basin. An area of intensifying thunderstorm development is already ongoing to the southwest of Owyhee NV, and this activity seems to continue to gradually strengthen and organize through 21-23Z, while propagating north-northeastward within a strongly sheared environment beneath an 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly 300 mb jet. With increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, one or two supercell structures may evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 44881413 43561430 41031651 41331720 42281650 42961602 43791576 44881413 Read more

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources cautioned boaters that launching vessels could be challenging this spring due to lower than normal water levels in many lakes and rivers. DNR crews were repairing boat ramps damaged over winter and will extend boat ramps when possible. Those with larger boats will have to pay particular attention to ramp lengths and water depths. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (St. Paul, Minn.), April 4, 2024