SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms, capable of producing hail and strong
wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the central and
southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Synopsis...
While an upper low will continue to linger just off the New England
coast, the more substantial system with respect to potentially
severe convection will be a second low, shifting across the western
U.S. through the Day 1 time period and then into the central Plains
Saturday and Saturday night.
At the surface, a developing low will shift into the central Plains
through the second half of the period, with a cold front to shift
eastward into/across the central and southern Plains through the
period.
...Western Nebraska across central and eastern Kansas, and into
eastern Oklahoma...
By Saturday morning/the start of the Day 2 period, the
aforementioned western U.S. upper low will be in the process of
deepening, as a strong (100-plus kt) mid-level jet streak shifts
across Arizona/New Mexico into the southern High Plains early in the
day.
In response to the deepening low, surface cyclogenesis is expected
into the afternoon across the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border
region, with continued through the evening as the low shifts into
western/central Nebraska.
Despite a lack of moisture, daytime heating combined with steep
lapse rates aloft will result in modest afternoon destabilization,
with roughly 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected to develop just
ahead of the evolving surface low, from southwestern Nebraska
east-southeastward northern Kansas, and then southward into the
southern Plains. By mid afternoon, low-topped storm development is
expected, as strong ascent focused near the near the surface low,
and the cold/occluded front extending east-southeastward across
southern Nebraska. Storms should be initially cellular, but are
likely to grow upscale into an arcing line, that may eventually
extend southward into eastern Oklahoma and possibly northeastern
Texas.
With strongly backed low-level flow, veering with height, shear will
be sufficient to support rotating updrafts -- particularly across
the Nebraska portion of the risk area. Here, locally damaging wind
gusts and hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range may occur in
roughly the 3PM to 7PM time frame, along with potential for a couple
of brief tornadoes. Tornado threat should remain limited due to
dewpoints expected to remain only in the low to mid 40s.
With the loss of diurnal heating, an evening convective weakening
trend is expected, with severe risk likely to have diminished to
minimal levels by late evening.
..Goss.. 04/05/2024
Read more
