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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening Sunday from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep, closed upper cyclone centered over NE/SD Sunday morning should gradually weaken as it moves slowly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Similarly, a sub-990 mb surface low is forecast to occlude as it develops towards IA/MN through the period. A composite front/dryline will advance eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley through Sunday evening. Appreciable low-level moisture, characterized by generally 60s surface dewpoints, will attempt to advance northward ahead of this boundary, perhaps reaching the western KY/TN vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. ...Far East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The environment ahead of the front/dryline should become at least weakly unstable through the day as diurnal heating acts on the gradually moistening low-level airmass. Still, modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of instability that can develop through peak heating, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE will reach 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 45-55 kt will support thunderstorm organization with any convection that can form, with some potential for a supercell or two. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop and persist from parts of far east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley along/ahead of the front. The best time frame for this severe potential should focus from late Sunday afternoon through evening (about 21Z to 03Z). Given sufficient low-level shear, a tornado or two also appears possible, primarily if a supercell can be maintained. The severe potential is expected to wane through the evening hours as thunderstorms spread eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. The overall coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain fairly isolated, with neutral mid-level height tendencies and weak large-scale ascent present south of the occluding cyclone. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe hail and/or tornado risk, associated mainly with supercell potential, remains too low to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Iowa into Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois... An occluded front should extend eastward from the deep surface low across parts of IA into northeastern MO and western IL through Sunday afternoon. While low-level moisture will remain limited across these areas, some steepening of low-level lapse rates is anticipated along/south of the boundary with daytime heating. Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the occluded front could support the potential for a landspout/non-supercell tornado, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability is present to support low-topped convection. At this point, confidence in this scenario occurring is not high enough to include low tornado probabilities. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that develop will be high. A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon. Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry, and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress fire spread potential. The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well, with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the Texas Big Bend region. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more