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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the west TX vicinity near the end of the period. ...Southern Great Plains... Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly this development will spread north during the day from central/east TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail should exist. Additional/separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by 12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to very large hail. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the west TX vicinity near the end of the period. ...Southern Great Plains... Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly this development will spread north during the day from central/east TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail should exist. Additional/separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by 12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to very large hail. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the west TX vicinity near the end of the period. ...Southern Great Plains... Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly this development will spread north during the day from central/east TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail should exist. Additional/separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by 12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to very large hail. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the west TX vicinity near the end of the period. ...Southern Great Plains... Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly this development will spread north during the day from central/east TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail should exist. Additional/separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by 12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to very large hail. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the west TX vicinity near the end of the period. ...Southern Great Plains... Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly this development will spread north during the day from central/east TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail should exist. Additional/separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by 12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to very large hail. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO WABASH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity. Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night. ...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys... Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes after sunset. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO WABASH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity. Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night. ...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys... Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes after sunset. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO WABASH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity. Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night. ...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys... Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes after sunset. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO WABASH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity. Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night. ...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys... Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes after sunset. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024 Read more