Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful negative-tilt mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners. This upper disturbance will eject east-northeastward into the central Great Plains later this afternoon, before evolving into a deep mid-level low near the SD/NE border Sunday morning. An attendant 500-mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. Early morning surface analysis indicates the northern periphery of 50+ deg F surface dewpoints to be confined to OK/TX Red River vicinity. Strong low-level moist advection will lead to a narrow but adequately moist plume arcing from north TX northward through central OK and into central KS/southwestern NE by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to show surface dewpoints likely remaining in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS---thereby limiting both buoyancy (500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE) and the overall magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. Despite the moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells are forecast before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over southern NE and far northern KS. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A lower probability for thunderstorm development seemingly exists farther south of the mid-level speed max across eastern OK and north TX. A few storms will probably develop by early evening along/ahead of the dryline/Pacific front. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful negative-tilt mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners. This upper disturbance will eject east-northeastward into the central Great Plains later this afternoon, before evolving into a deep mid-level low near the SD/NE border Sunday morning. An attendant 500-mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. Early morning surface analysis indicates the northern periphery of 50+ deg F surface dewpoints to be confined to OK/TX Red River vicinity. Strong low-level moist advection will lead to a narrow but adequately moist plume arcing from north TX northward through central OK and into central KS/southwestern NE by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to show surface dewpoints likely remaining in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS---thereby limiting both buoyancy (500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE) and the overall magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. Despite the moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells are forecast before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over southern NE and far northern KS. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A lower probability for thunderstorm development seemingly exists farther south of the mid-level speed max across eastern OK and north TX. A few storms will probably develop by early evening along/ahead of the dryline/Pacific front. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful negative-tilt mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners. This upper disturbance will eject east-northeastward into the central Great Plains later this afternoon, before evolving into a deep mid-level low near the SD/NE border Sunday morning. An attendant 500-mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. Early morning surface analysis indicates the northern periphery of 50+ deg F surface dewpoints to be confined to OK/TX Red River vicinity. Strong low-level moist advection will lead to a narrow but adequately moist plume arcing from north TX northward through central OK and into central KS/southwestern NE by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to show surface dewpoints likely remaining in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS---thereby limiting both buoyancy (500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE) and the overall magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. Despite the moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells are forecast before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over southern NE and far northern KS. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A lower probability for thunderstorm development seemingly exists farther south of the mid-level speed max across eastern OK and north TX. A few storms will probably develop by early evening along/ahead of the dryline/Pacific front. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful negative-tilt mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners. This upper disturbance will eject east-northeastward into the central Great Plains later this afternoon, before evolving into a deep mid-level low near the SD/NE border Sunday morning. An attendant 500-mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. Early morning surface analysis indicates the northern periphery of 50+ deg F surface dewpoints to be confined to OK/TX Red River vicinity. Strong low-level moist advection will lead to a narrow but adequately moist plume arcing from north TX northward through central OK and into central KS/southwestern NE by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to show surface dewpoints likely remaining in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS---thereby limiting both buoyancy (500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE) and the overall magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. Despite the moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells are forecast before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over southern NE and far northern KS. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A lower probability for thunderstorm development seemingly exists farther south of the mid-level speed max across eastern OK and north TX. A few storms will probably develop by early evening along/ahead of the dryline/Pacific front. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful negative-tilt mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners. This upper disturbance will eject east-northeastward into the central Great Plains later this afternoon, before evolving into a deep mid-level low near the SD/NE border Sunday morning. An attendant 500-mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. Early morning surface analysis indicates the northern periphery of 50+ deg F surface dewpoints to be confined to OK/TX Red River vicinity. Strong low-level moist advection will lead to a narrow but adequately moist plume arcing from north TX northward through central OK and into central KS/southwestern NE by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to show surface dewpoints likely remaining in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS---thereby limiting both buoyancy (500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE) and the overall magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. Despite the moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells are forecast before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over southern NE and far northern KS. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A lower probability for thunderstorm development seemingly exists farther south of the mid-level speed max across eastern OK and north TX. A few storms will probably develop by early evening along/ahead of the dryline/Pacific front. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/06/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...OK PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE. Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains through midday. Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance. Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is expected across much of the southern Plains region. Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions; however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. ...Central KS... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire weather conditions. ...Northern Plains... Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more