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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

563
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development
of this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves slowly
westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more