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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and precipitation analysis. Locally elevated conditions are also possible on western portions of the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1106 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Middle/upper TX coast vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011550Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some severe threat could continue and possibly increase in coverage this afternoon, with a threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm cluster that earlier evolved near Port O'Connor is moving offshore late this morning. Some convection is spreading northeastward out of this cluster (possibly aided by outflow), while a couple of small supercells are ongoing near the coast across Matagorda/Brazoria Counties. Some deepening cumulus is also noted closer to Galveston Bay, within an increasingly uncapped environment. Storm evolution into the afternoon remains uncertain across the area, but based on current trends, some increase in storm coverage and intensity appears plausible with time and northeastward extent toward the upper TX coast. Some redevelopment will also be possible farther south, along the trailing outflow from the ongoing storm cluster. Very rich low-level moisture, strong to locally extreme buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for organized convection, including a couple supercells and/or stronger clusters with an attendant risk of isolated damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado (though low-level flow/shear is expected to remain rather weak). Watch issuance is possible if larger corridor of severe potential becomes evident. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28559544 27669683 27599792 28029795 29539679 30319478 30469382 29629379 29409431 29089469 28999488 28559544 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph, are possible across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas Sunday afternoon into evening. Additional severe storms producing strong gusts and large hail are possible across the broader central/northern Plains vicinity. Very large hail to baseball size is also possible across parts of west Texas. ...Northern/Central Plains... A subtle upper shortwave trough will shift east across the region on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis will remain modest as upper height falls are not forecast to be very strong. Nevertheless, a weak surface low over the western Dakotas will shift east/northeast toward western Ontario through the period. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the Dakotas and NE from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport generally low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across NE and the central/eastern Dakotas into parts of MN and IA, with somewhat higher dewpoints into KS and MO. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, with southeast ND being the northern extent of those steeper lapse rates. This will aid in strong destabilization across SD/NE/KS during the afternoon/evening, with forecast MLCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (somewhat lower over ND). Initial convection is expected to develop over west-central ND by early afternoon, with some warm advection storms possible closer to the Red River during the morning. Additional storm development across SD/NE/northeast CO will be a bit later in the afternoon as stronger capping will need to be eroded. Initial cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, linear forcing imposed by the eastward-advancing cold front should support upscale development, especially as a low-level jet increases toward evening. A more potent line/MCS may develop over southern SD/NE/northern KS where overall instability and kinematics will be better compared to further north. Point forecast soundings from CAMs guidance indicate at least a 60-70 kt rear-inflow jet, suggesting a strong and well-organized system. As a result, wind probabilities have been increased and an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for parts of the area. ...Southern Plains to TX/LA coast... Some uncertainty exists concerning possible ongoing convection across parts of OK and/or northwest TX Sunday morning. Regardless of whether convection is continuing from the Day 1/Sat overnight period, outflow will likely exist over this area, along with a quasi-warm front within southeasterly low-level flow. Heating along this boundary and dewpoints into the 70s F will support strong instability. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into southeast TX and the LA coast vicinity as either new convection and/or reinvigorated morning storms. Strong gusts will be the main concern with this activity. Confidence is greater in isolated to widely scattered storms developing near a dryline extending southward from the OK/TX Panhandle into southwest TX. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support high-based supercells. Elongated/straight hodographs amid very steep midlevel lapse rates and 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE suggest large to very large hail will be possible. Strong outflow winds also are expected with this activity. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2024 Read more