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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Morning surface analysis places a surface front draped across NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Residual outflow boundary intersects the lee trough/dryline over western NE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. A few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Recent model guidance has shown stronger agreement in showing scattered thunderstorms developing from southeast CO into western KS late this afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into an MCS is progged by model guidance within an environment characterized as moderately unstable and featuring steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderately strong deep flow supporting organized storms. An intensification of low-level southerly flow during the evening will promote additional storms/mergers into a severe cluster moving east-southeast into parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest OK during the evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph with the upscale growth. Farther south, the environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. The boundary layer continues to destabilize (strong buoyancy as of midday) with moderately strong westerly flow above 500 mb. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible this afternoon near and just east of the midlevel trough within the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ...Northern UT... Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow will aid in some organization. The very steep lapse rates (inverted-v profiles) will favor evaporative cooling with the stronger cores and the potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Weinman.. 06/01/2024 Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0365 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0365 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 1 16:01:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop into central/southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely to develop at lower elevations on inland slopes of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges spreading into the deserts of southern California where recent large grass fires have occurred. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more