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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of the northern-stream shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday. Much of guidance suite now suggests this wave will mature into a cyclone over Manitoba on D5/Wednesday before then tracking southeastward over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Surface low will be stacked beneath the mid/upper level cyclone by D5/Wednesday, while an associated cold front moves eastward/southeastward through the Upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley on D4/Tuesday. This initial front will likely weaken on D5/Wednesday, before another more substantial frontal push occurs on D6/Thursday, taking the front through much of the central Plains and OH Valley. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front, beginning across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday and continuing across the central Plains on D5/Wednesday. Thunderstorms will remain possible across the central Plains on D6/Thursday, with storms possible across the middle/upper OH Valley as well. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes the need for an area across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday, while uncertainties regarding frontal timing limit predictability on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. The front is not expected to effect much of the southern Plains with low-level moisture remaining over the region on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. This suggests some thunderstorms are possible but the lack of any large, more synoptic scale features limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of the northern-stream shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday. Much of guidance suite now suggests this wave will mature into a cyclone over Manitoba on D5/Wednesday before then tracking southeastward over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Surface low will be stacked beneath the mid/upper level cyclone by D5/Wednesday, while an associated cold front moves eastward/southeastward through the Upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley on D4/Tuesday. This initial front will likely weaken on D5/Wednesday, before another more substantial frontal push occurs on D6/Thursday, taking the front through much of the central Plains and OH Valley. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front, beginning across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday and continuing across the central Plains on D5/Wednesday. Thunderstorms will remain possible across the central Plains on D6/Thursday, with storms possible across the middle/upper OH Valley as well. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes the need for an area across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday, while uncertainties regarding frontal timing limit predictability on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. The front is not expected to effect much of the southern Plains with low-level moisture remaining over the region on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. This suggests some thunderstorms are possible but the lack of any large, more synoptic scale features limits predictability. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MAF TO 35 E BGS. WW 363 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010800Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-173-227-317-329-383-010800- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND REAGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more