Aggregator

WW 365 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 011625Z - 012300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Plain Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of a risk for severe gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Victoria TX to 45 miles east northeast of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-015-025-027-041-012340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES EDDY LEA LINCOLN ROOSEVELT TXC043-103-109-243-301-371-377-389-443-475-495-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES TERRELL WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-015-025-027-041-012340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES EDDY LEA LINCOLN ROOSEVELT TXC043-103-109-243-301-371-377-389-443-475-495-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES TERRELL WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... FOR MUCH OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...much of eastern CO...western KS...and parts of western NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366... Valid 012154Z - 012300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms should gradually mature and move east with a risk for hail and damaging winds. Additional storm development is possible farther east into parts of KS/NE. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional observations showed several widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from southern WY into eastern CO and far western KS. Hail and damaging winds have occurred with these storms, and that threat will likely continue this afternoon and into the evening given moderate buoyancy and effective shear in place. Additional storm development appears likely along the eastern fringes of WW366 later this afternoon into the evening from parts of northwest KS into southwestern NE. Deepening cumulus was noted along a modifying baroclinic zone from near GLD to OGA. Hi-res guidance and observation trends suggest a few more strong to severe storms are likely within this zone. Given the moderate buoyancy and bulk shear, organized storms capable of hail and damaging winds also appear likely. A tornado or two will also be possible given some enhanced low-level shear along the modified boundary. ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37000239 37000321 37020367 37280374 39400379 41150400 41910374 42350260 42420147 42210100 41660064 40920045 39150027 38560049 37540126 37100190 37000239 Read more

WW 368 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012055Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Supercells capable of large to giant hail will be possible. As storms mature into the early evening, a tornado risk may also develop for an hour or two as storms move into richer moisture over parts of the Pecos Valley. A cluster of severe storms may evolve towards the mid to late evening with an increasing risk for severe gusts accompanying these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Roswell NM to 60 miles southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-079-097-099-113-115- 012340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN VERMILION VERNON TXC241-351-457-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON TYLER GMZ432-012340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 369 SEVERE TSTM KS NE WY 012155Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will track eastward across the watch area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat with this activity, along with hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of Sidney NE to 30 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367...WW 368... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 1 21:55:16 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more