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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LCH TO 40 N BPT TO 35 SSE LFK. ..WEINMAN..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-079-097-099-113-115- 012240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN VERMILION VERNON TXC241-351-457-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON TYLER GMZ432-012240- CW Read more

MD 1113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...North-Central into Northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012000Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm threat will spread east-southeastward across northeast TX through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Some modest intensification has been noted with a persistent storm cluster moving through the eastern Metroplex and approaching northeast TX. This cluster may continue propagating east-southeastward along a sharpening instability gradient, potentially aided by the MCV moving across north TX. Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will continue to provide sufficient effective shear for storm organization, with a continued threat for a supercell or two within the larger storm cluster. Relatively weak midlevel lapse rates may temper the hail threat to some extent, though at least isolated instances of severe hail will remain possible through the afternoon. Some threat for isolated damaging wind will also persist, especially if any further upscale growth occurs this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible if an increase in the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat becomes apparent. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32519682 32799612 32639455 32279431 31629457 31549538 31669636 31869679 31989693 32359690 32519682 Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0368 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
Mesoscale Discussion 1112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern Utah. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011937Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms may develop with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s across northern Utah. This has resulted instability around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE with some additional increase possible as heating continues. A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough (on 6.2u water vapor imagery) is moving out of eastern Nevada which should provide sufficient lift for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These relatively quick moving storms with an inverted-V thermodynamic profile will support a threat for severe wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Once the boundary layer starts to cool this evening, expect the severe wind threat to wane. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN... LAT...LON 39531466 40391471 41241417 41871274 41831262 41431101 40701063 39551205 39351362 39251457 39531466 Read more