Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...Northeast/New England... Negligible Outlook changes are warranted, with an active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States... More isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado could occur with any sustained supercell. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains including eastern Montana to North Dakota... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into Montana will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability for storms closer to the international border where a Slight Risk has been introduced. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east Montana, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Central High Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of eastern Colorado, southwest/south-central Nebraska and western Kansas. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist through early evening before weakening. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, where confidence is currently highest in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Uncertainty remains rather high due to the potential influence of early-day convection. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong surface cyclone are forecast to move across northern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold front trailing from this cyclone is expected to move across parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains through the day and evening. A strong belt of midlevel westerly flow will move across the upper Great Lakes, with more modest flow farther south in the vicinity of the front. There is some potential for strong storms and possibly an MCS to move across parts of WI/MI into northern IL/IN during the morning, with at least an isolated severe threat. The position of the cold front during the afternoon will likely be influenced to some extent by early-day convection, though moderate low-level westerly flow will support some recovery in the wake of morning outflow. The front and any outflow boundaries are expected to become a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Rich low-level moisture beneath the eastward extension of the EML will support moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) along/ahead of the front. Effective shear will likely be relatively modest (generally 25-35 kt), but sufficient for some storm organization in combination with the strong buoyancy. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential into the evening before the threat begins to wane late in the period. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, where confidence is currently highest in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Uncertainty remains rather high due to the potential influence of early-day convection. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong surface cyclone are forecast to move across northern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold front trailing from this cyclone is expected to move across parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains through the day and evening. A strong belt of midlevel westerly flow will move across the upper Great Lakes, with more modest flow farther south in the vicinity of the front. There is some potential for strong storms and possibly an MCS to move across parts of WI/MI into northern IL/IN during the morning, with at least an isolated severe threat. The position of the cold front during the afternoon will likely be influenced to some extent by early-day convection, though moderate low-level westerly flow will support some recovery in the wake of morning outflow. The front and any outflow boundaries are expected to become a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Rich low-level moisture beneath the eastward extension of the EML will support moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) along/ahead of the front. Effective shear will likely be relatively modest (generally 25-35 kt), but sufficient for some storm organization in combination with the strong buoyancy. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential into the evening before the threat begins to wane late in the period. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, where confidence is currently highest in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Uncertainty remains rather high due to the potential influence of early-day convection. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong surface cyclone are forecast to move across northern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold front trailing from this cyclone is expected to move across parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains through the day and evening. A strong belt of midlevel westerly flow will move across the upper Great Lakes, with more modest flow farther south in the vicinity of the front. There is some potential for strong storms and possibly an MCS to move across parts of WI/MI into northern IL/IN during the morning, with at least an isolated severe threat. The position of the cold front during the afternoon will likely be influenced to some extent by early-day convection, though moderate low-level westerly flow will support some recovery in the wake of morning outflow. The front and any outflow boundaries are expected to become a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Rich low-level moisture beneath the eastward extension of the EML will support moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) along/ahead of the front. Effective shear will likely be relatively modest (generally 25-35 kt), but sufficient for some storm organization in combination with the strong buoyancy. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential into the evening before the threat begins to wane late in the period. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, where confidence is currently highest in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Uncertainty remains rather high due to the potential influence of early-day convection. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong surface cyclone are forecast to move across northern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold front trailing from this cyclone is expected to move across parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains through the day and evening. A strong belt of midlevel westerly flow will move across the upper Great Lakes, with more modest flow farther south in the vicinity of the front. There is some potential for strong storms and possibly an MCS to move across parts of WI/MI into northern IL/IN during the morning, with at least an isolated severe threat. The position of the cold front during the afternoon will likely be influenced to some extent by early-day convection, though moderate low-level westerly flow will support some recovery in the wake of morning outflow. The front and any outflow boundaries are expected to become a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Rich low-level moisture beneath the eastward extension of the EML will support moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) along/ahead of the front. Effective shear will likely be relatively modest (generally 25-35 kt), but sufficient for some storm organization in combination with the strong buoyancy. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential into the evening before the threat begins to wane late in the period. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more