Aggregator

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

WW 446 TORNADO IA IL WI 222015Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a boundary extending from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Favorable winds aloft will promote supercell storms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Waterloo IA to 30 miles north of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222246Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362 39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289 Read more

MD 1377 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 446... FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 446... Valid 222225Z - 230000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues. SUMMARY...Southwestern Wisconsin will see a locally greater risk for a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the warm front may eventually grow upscale later this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have generally struggled to intensify, particularly those away from the surface low/warm front. The 18Z observed DVN sounding showed very poor mid-level lapse rates which are likely contributing to these convective trends. Still, a couple of discrete storms in northeastern Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin have shown at least weak low-level rotation at times. These storms are moving into an area where surface winds are slightly more backed in southwestern Wisconsin. Should these storms maintain their intensity, they would pose a locally greater tornado risk over the next 1-2 hours. Storms along the warm front could also pose some risk for a tornado, though storm coverage is such that destructive interference may mitigate any higher potential. This activity may form a more organized cold pool and begin to push southeastward with time. This scenario has support from several CAMs. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this more linear activity. ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 43269228 43469132 43298997 43008936 42588923 42009051 41869136 42029198 42559260 42849273 43269228 Read more

MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far western North Dakota and extreme northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222054Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible this afternoon with the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The passage of a 500 mb vort max along the U.S./Canada border is supporting convective initiation across portions of eastern Montana. Latest visible satellite imagery, MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data, all indicate some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity, with some indications of hail occurring in Musselshell County, MT. The stronger flow aloft with the passing 500 mb vort max is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs and accompanying 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Coinciding this axis of shear are 8.5+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates, which may support a couple of stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Multicells and transient supercells would be the most likely storm modes with the longest-lived storms, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. Given the expected sparse nature of the severe wind/hail, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46620881 47050761 47570467 47290258 46570237 45930299 45610451 45400591 45410708 45780817 46620881 Read more

MD 1375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222032Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place. Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717 38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173 Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

WW 446 TORNADO IA IL WI 222015Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a boundary extending from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Favorable winds aloft will promote supercell storms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Waterloo IA to 30 miles north of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NY...CT...RI...CENTRAL MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NY...CT...RI...central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221951Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will maximize and become focused over a mesoscale area over the next 2-3 hours (mainly prior to 23 UTC/7 pm EDT). Because of the small spatiotemporal window of the severe risk area, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized linear band of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue to move east-southeastward to the southern New England coast over the next several hours. Echo top trends over the past 2 hours has shown tops increase from 40 kft to 50 kft. This convective trend is an indication that 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (buoyancy) has become realized by the stronger storms over CT. The moderately strong westerly 2-6 km flow (30 kt) will support updraft/cold pool organization as this activity moves through a very moist airmass (low to mid 70s surface dewpoints). Brief/transient rotation with updrafts encountering relatively backed flow (south-southeasterly at the surface) may aid in mesoscyclonic rotation and perhaps hail potential (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) with discrete storms ahead of the line. Otherwise, wind damage potential due to strong-severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41287250 41017342 41137388 41497413 41787393 41967282 42347197 42117151 41917115 41587113 41427118 41287250 Read more

MD 1374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...north-central Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222020Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65 mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI. Lightning was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east along a west-east oriented stationary front. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range. Ample deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it moves east. An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this storm. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... LAT...LON 44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446 44088450 44188438 Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0446 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 22 20:01:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more