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WW 447 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MO LM 230035Z - 230600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Iowa Northern and Western Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Northern Missouri Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 735 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms occurring along and ahead of a cold front should pose some threat for severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph this evening while the move generally eastward. Isolated severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter also appears possible. A tornado or two may occur in/near northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA to 60 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CDJ TO 10 E IRK TO 25 WNW BRL TO 40 WSW RFD TO 20 SSE RAC. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-031-037-043-057-063-067-071-073-089-091-093-095- 097-099-103-105-109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-169-175-179-187- 195-197-203-230440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM SCHUYLER STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD INC089-230440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LWD TO 5 S OTM TO 30 NE OTM. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-007-009-011-015-031-037-043-057-063-067-071-073-089-091- 093-095-097-099-103-105-109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169- 175-177-179-187-195-197-201-203-230340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BROWN BUREAU CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD INC089-230340- IN Read more

MD 1380 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 446... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 446... Valid 230029Z - 230200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes remain possible with remaining discrete and line-embedded supercells this evening. Local extension in time of WW 446 will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms, with embedded supercells continues eastward through south-central Wisconsin. One embedded supercell produced a radar confirmed tornado just southeast of the town of Marshall. On the Green/Rock County border, a more discrete supercell is also moving east. The KMXK VAD shows large low-level SRH values. The environment just south of the warm front will remain favorable for tornadoes as this activity moves eastward toward Milwaukee this evening. ..Wendt.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX... LAT...LON 42558965 42788965 42928955 43108937 43288891 43238845 43088780 42708769 42528783 42518840 42558965 Read more

MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...West-central into northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222355Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe threat is expected for western and northern portions of Illinois. Damaging winds are the expected main hazard, but a conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in severe potential can be expected across portions of western into northern Illinois this evening. Activity currently in Wisconsin near the surface low/warm front may eventually congeal and push farther southward into Illinois. Additionally, storms along the cold front may move in from the west. The current expectation is that activity will generally be more linear in terms of storm mode with primarily a threat of damaging winds. While 850 mb winds are expected to modestly increase this evening, the low-level shear vector orientation will not be overly favorable for QLCS circulations. It is possible some discrete elements could develop ahead of the front/convective line which would pose a marginally greater tornado risk. Another uncertainty is the low-level moisture with eastward extent. Current surface observations show a dry pocket in the Chicagoland vicinity. Some higher dewpoints do exist to the southwest and should make some attempt to advect northeastward tonight, but the exact magnitude of moisture return is uncertain. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41878951 42338894 42418810 41938776 41138817 40129011 40179072 40359096 40759096 41409014 41878951 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222246Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362 39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289 Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0447 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0447 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more