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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 1382 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...MUCH OF VERMONT...AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...eastern New York...much of Vermont...and western Massachusetts. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231601Z - 231730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A mid-level jet streak can be seen on water vapor crossing southern Ontario late this morning. As this spreads east through the afternoon, expect thunderstorm development along a pre-frontal trough, which is currently crossing Lake Ontario. A very moist airmass is present across eastern New York with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints. In addition, some heating has occurred between broken cloudcover with temperatures now in the upper 70s to low 80s. Some additional heating, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, should combine to increase MLCAPE from around 500 J/kg as of 15Z to around 1200-1500 J/kg by 17-18Z. This instability combined with a favorable supercell wind profile (45-50 knots of 0-6km shear per TYX VWP) should result in severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Some hail is possible given supercell storm mode, but the warm lower troposphere (14kft freezing temps) may limit the hail threat somewhat. The greater threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Veered surface flow is the primary mitigating factor to a greater/more intense tornado threat given the supercell storm mode and 170 m2/s2 0-1 SRH (per TYX VWP). However, despite the somewhat veered surface flow, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen through the afternoon/evening which will support the threat. A tornado watch will likely be issued by 17Z. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42467589 42967612 43787610 44687566 45077395 45047157 44747069 44027010 43537018 43017053 42667056 42227123 42117211 42077346 42137382 42467589 Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more