Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England this evening. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the northern High Plains. ...01z Update... Ongoing convection over New England has decreased in coverage and intensity over the last couple of hours. While some buoyancy remains over southern New England, the loss of diurnal heating amid poor mid-lapse rates, will favor a continued downtrend in convective intensity this evening. Still, a few damaging gusts will remain possible, with isolated ongoing storms given relatively robust shear profiles. Farther south over the Mid Atlantic, several bands of storms have developed ahead of the slow-moving cold front over western/central PA and WV. Deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized multi-cells and or brief supercell structures. However, the gradual onset of nocturnal stabilization and the loss of forcing from the departing mid-level wave to the north suggests additional storm development/upscale growth is unlikely this evening. The potential for damaging gusts will persist for a few more hours as storms encounter diminishing residual buoyancy. While the severe threat should generally decrease over the broader Mid Atlantic and upper OH Valley this evening, somewhat greater storm coverage and perhaps a locally greater risk may persist over parts of southern/central PA into northwestern MD. Will maintain the Slight risk (level 2/5) across this region with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Northern Plains... No changes were made to the current outlook area over portions of MT and ND. Isolated supercells over southern SK may move south into northern MT and western ND this evening and overnight with additional storm development possible stateside. Despite somewhat limited low-level moisture (00z GGW RAOB), supercell wind profiles may support a risk for damaging gusts and hail into this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/24/2024 Read more

MD 1388 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...the Allegheny Plateau/Allegheny Mountains vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449... Valid 232320Z - 240115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 continues. SUMMARY...An appreciable increase in severe weather potential appears unlikely, but localized damaging wind gusts remain possible in isolated stronger cells spreading across and east of the Allegheny Mountains through 8-10 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Despite the development of fairly numerous thunderstorms across the Allegheny Plateau and mountains late this afternoon, activity has struggled to substantively intensify in the presence of rather modest deep tropospheric lapse rates, and relatively weak large-scale forcing for ascent. It is not clear that this will change appreciably during the next few hours, as the boundary-layer gradually cools. However, downward mixing of 30-40 kt mean west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow in isolated stronger cells could continue to pose a risk for localized damaging wind gusts as activity advects eastward through 00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38988143 40178074 41957717 41957590 41277538 40237647 39427775 38467947 38988143 Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ZZV TO 25 NNW AOO TO 25 WSW IPT TO 10 WNW AVP TO 40 NNE MSV. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...OKX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-240140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-240140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC021-027-039-105-111-240140- NY Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALB TO 20 NNE GFL TO 65 NNW BTV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-015-232340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC001-005-007-017-031-232340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-232340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALB TO 20 NNE GFL TO 65 NNW BTV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-015-232340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC001-005-007-017-031-232340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-232340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN Read more

WW 448 TORNADO MA ME NH NY VT 231700Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Massachusetts Western Maine New Hampshire Northeast New York Vermont * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across eastern New York and track eastward across the watch area through the day. Supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south southeast of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1388 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...the Allegheny Plateau/Allegheny Mountains vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449... Valid 232320Z - 240115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 continues. SUMMARY...An appreciable increase in severe weather potential appears unlikely, but localized damaging wind gusts remain possible in isolated stronger cells spreading across and east of the Allegheny Mountains through 8-10 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Despite the development of fairly numerous thunderstorms across the Allegheny Plateau and mountains late this afternoon, activity has struggled to substantively intensify in the presence of rather modest deep tropospheric lapse rates, and relatively weak large-scale forcing for ascent. It is not clear that this will change appreciably during the next few hours, as the boundary-layer gradually cools. However, downward mixing of 30-40 kt mean west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow in isolated stronger cells could continue to pose a risk for localized damaging wind gusts as activity advects eastward through 00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38988143 40178074 41957717 41957590 41277538 40237647 39427775 38467947 38988143 Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E ZZV TO 35 WNW HLG TO 20 E DUJ TO 30 N UNV TO 20 SSE ELM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...OKX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-240040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-240040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-017-021-025-027-039-071-077-079-095-105-107-111-240040- Read more

MD 1387 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Connecticut into southeast New Hampshire Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 232228Z - 232330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is becoming more spatially confined late this afternoon. A tornado or two may still occur with the stronger supercells before a weakening trend is expected as they encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...A couple of stronger discrete supercells are continuing eastward from northeast of Hartford, CT and east of Manchester, NH. The greatest short term tornado threat will exist with the storm northeast of Hartford as this storm will have a longer duration in marginally greater buoyancy. The KBOX VAD continues to display ample low-level hodograph curvature. A tornado or two will remain possible for the next couple of hours. Additionally, isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail could occur as well. The main limiting factor this evening will be decreasing buoyancy with eastward extent given cooler temperatures/marine influence. ..Wendt.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 41837138 41727163 41707192 41747241 41897245 42067229 43107130 43237101 43077092 42297105 41947130 41837138 Read more

WW 449 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY OH PA WV 232030Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western New Jersey Southeast New York East Central Ohio Pennsylvania Northern Panhandle of West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the afternoon and evening. The strongest cells will occasionally pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Akron OH to 25 miles east of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 448... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALB TO 20 NNE GFL TO 65 NNW BTV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-015-232340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC001-005-007-017-031-232340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-232340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALB TO 20 NNE GFL TO 65 NNW BTV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-015-232340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC001-005-007-017-031-232340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-232340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CAK TO 10 E FKL. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...OKX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-232340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-232340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-017-021-025-027-039-071-077-079-095-105-107-111-232340- NY Read more

WW 448 TORNADO MA ME NH NY VT 231700Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Massachusetts Western Maine New Hampshire Northeast New York Vermont * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across eastern New York and track eastward across the watch area through the day. Supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south southeast of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 23 22:00:11 UTC 2024.

MD 1386 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND FAR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 1386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Vermont...New Hampshire...and far northern Massachusetts Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 232032Z - 232200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms should continue into the evening across Vermont and New Hampshire and perhaps northern Massachusetts. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms have produced isolated wind damage across parts of eastern New York and Vermont this afternoon. The environment across the region has continued to improve with mid 70s dewpoints now into southern Vermont and New Hampshire and some stronger low-level flow across the same region. The ENX VWP shows over 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH which will continue to support organizing low-level updrafts and some tornado threat into the evening. Several rounds of severe weather are possible with another round of storms near the NY/VT border which may intensify as they move east, and another cluster in central New York which may strengthen as it moves into the improving environment farther east this evening. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42777300 44357326 45027267 44997137 43497095 42817093 42517167 42457284 42777300 Read more

MD 1385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...SOUTHEAST NY...NORTHWEST NJ...CT...AND SOUTHERN MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...southeast NY...northwest NJ...CT...and southern MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231923Z - 232130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two appear to be the main concerns. Convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating within cloud breaks from eastern PA northeastward across southern New England is supporting steep low-level lapse rates amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. While large-scale ascent is generally weak across the area, convection approaching from the west and potentially new development along mesoscale/differential heating boundaries could become strong to severe, given 40 kt of deep-layer shear per regional VWP. Ample low/midlevel flow and the steepened low-level lapse rates will favor a damaging-wind risk, and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained supercell structures. Overall, confidence in the development of persistent strong/severe updrafts is low owing to the weak forcing for ascent, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a possible watch this afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40567764 41927651 42667570 42767522 42707460 42197261 42117118 41827107 41617114 41417205 41337260 41267332 40707473 40077557 39857619 39887700 40157759 40567764 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more