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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, this afternoon and continuing overnight. A cluster of severe storms potentially capable of producing destructive wind gusts may develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin though there remains significant uncertainty. ...Upper Midwest to the central Plains... A broad upper low with several embedded vort maxima and moderate west/southwestern flow over the Canadian prairies is forecast to move eastward and consolidate across portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent will overspread a developing surface low and warm front lifting into the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Rich boundary-layer moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) is forecast to surge northward from the central Plains into the lower Red River Valley. Very warm temperatures (at the surface and aloft), steep mid-level lapse rates, and the returning moisture will prime an extremely unstable, but strongly capped troposphere, potentially supportive of all hazards. Multiple convective scenarios appear possible from late this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated surface-based thunderstorms may develop along the occluded front in eastern ND or near the triple point/warm front across northeast SD and western MN. While uncertain given the large inhibition, any storms that do form will likely organize into supercells given strong veering wind profiles and the very large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg). Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially near the warm front with backed surface winds. Some CAM guidance suggests a cluster of storms could then track southeast along the warm front, potentially growing upscale into an MCS, with a damaging wind and hail risk into the overnight hours across the western Great Lakes. A second, potentially more significant, scenario may evolve if convection remains suppressed through the afternoon and instead develops along the southeastward surging cold front over the eastern Dakotas and western MN, or elevated storms intensify north of the warm front. With the 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, rapid upscale growth into a damaging MCS/bow echo could result in the risk for widespread severe winds. This scenario remains highly uncertain given the warm temperatures aloft and unpredictable mesoscale storm interactions, but is reflected in several hi-res model solutions and by general pattern recognition. Should this occur, a swath of significant damaging winds may evolve along or just north of the buoyancy gradient across southern MN, southern/central WI and into portions of northern IL by 12z Tues. Considered an upgrade to level-3 Enhanced but uncertainty in storm development and evolution remains too high. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central NE and northern KS. Deeply mixed profiles may overcome very warm H7 temperatures to support widely scattered high-based storms. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. High-based storms are also possible over the Black Hills where weak upslope flow is occurring behind the front. Limited moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated. Still, the deeply mixed air mass could support damaging gusts with any sustained storms. ...Carolinas... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multi-cell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/24/2024 Read more