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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are expected today into tonight from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated large to very large hail will be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley today, as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance south and eastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. A band of strong low-level convergence is expected to develop along the front by midday. This, along with large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough, will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. To the east of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will provide plenty of fuel for MCS development. Cells are expected to first initiate from northern South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Cell coverage is expected to gradually expand southward into the mid Missouri Valley. Initially, supercell development will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large-hail threat. The most intense cells may be able to produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 knots. As low-level flow gradually increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a transition from more isolated convection to a line is expected. The line is forecast to grow upscale and move through far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where severe wind gusts will be likely. If a large-scale bow can form, then wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible near the bow's apex. The severe threat is expected to move east-southward into the mid Mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Further south-southwest, into the central Plains and southern High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with only a marginal severe threat expected in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the mid Mississippi Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas with the strongest instability have substantial directional shear in the boundary layer, with northwest flow at mid-levels. This will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely with any cold pool that can become established. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind-damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability, with storms eventually affecting the southern Appalachians. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/31/2024 Read more