Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1759 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310417Z - 310615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation may occur in the 04-07z period across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. If this scenario occurs, parameters would suggest a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch could be needed. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows very moist low-level conditions in place across eastern NE/western IA, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. This, combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates are yielding large CAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg. Low-level convergence is weak, but a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across the region, likely aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. 00z CAM guidance varies on placement and timing of this development, but recent IR images indicate patches of CU/TCU in the region that could mature into thunderstorms within the next few hours. Sufficient westerly flow aloft will help to organize storms into rotating/bowing structures. If this scenario unfolds, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. ..Hart.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42709800 42419530 41879309 40989306 40819422 41189667 41729808 42219835 42709800 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more