Aggregator

Crops on a farm near Lowell were watered at least 5 to 6 hours per day amid the drought and heat. Irrigation drives up the cost of growing produce. WTAP (Parkersburg, W.V.), July 30, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BRL TO 30 SW PIA TO 20 N PIA. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-009-013-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049- 051-057-061-079-083-101-107-113-115-117-121-125-129-135-137-139- 143-147-149-159-167-169-171-173-179-183-203-311340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN MARION MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY TAZEWELL VERMILION WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE OTM TO 10 SW BRL TO 25 E BRL. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-067-109-311340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS HANCOCK MCDONOUGH IAC111-177-311340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-103-111-199-311340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK KNOX LEWIS SCOTLAND Read more

MD 1762 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO TO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...far southeast IA/northeast MO to central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577... Valid 311030Z - 311230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for strong to isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph should spread east-southeast of WW 577 into central Illinois. An additional severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to locally severe storms will likely progress east-southeast of WW 577, as it moves from the IA/MO/IL border area into central IL. Measured ASOS/AWOS gusts thus far have been up to 63 mph in Ottumwa, IA, with a personal weather station recently measuring 67 mph in far southeast IA. Despite the relatively short nature of the cluster's embedded line segment, the cold IR temps suggest that deep convective cores should persist along the MLCAPE gradient. While most gusts will probably remain sub-severe, a sufficient threat for severe gusts to around 70 mph should continue on an isolated basis through mid-morning. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40999132 40718947 40188891 39538903 39368962 39599081 39879154 40209194 40999132 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming more
organized near an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. If these current trends
continue, this system is expected to become a tropical depression as
soon as later this morning. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some gradual development of this system remains possible, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE OTM TO BRL TO 20 SSW MLI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-067-071-109-131-187-311240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH MERCER WARREN IAC101-111-177-311240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-103-111-199-311240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK KNOX LEWIS Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW OTM TO 20 NE DSM TO 25 N OTM. WW 576 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-099-123-125-135-179-311200- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS JASPER MAHASKA MARION MONROE WAPELLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more