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WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LWD TO 35 SSW FOD TO 40 W CID. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-015-039-049-051-053-073-099-117-121-123-125-135-153-157- 169-179-181-185-311040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BOONE CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GREENE JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1761 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO...WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...south-central/southeast IA...northeast MO...west-central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576... Valid 310731Z - 310930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and localized damaging wind threat in the greater Des Moines metro area may shift southeast through dawn, with increasing potential for severe gusts. An additional severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed to the east-southeast of WW 576. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely congealed over the greater Des Moines metro area within the exit region of a southwesterly low-level jet. This convection has only produced reported hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter, despite deep convective cores characterized by echo tops to 60 kft and cold cloud-top temperatures in IR imagery. Given how deep this cluster has become, and with additional cells forming along its southern flank, a strengthening surface cold pool should develop over the next couple hours. Within the prevailing westerly mid-level flow regime per DMX VWP data, this should yield a southeastward movement to the cluster along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient. Potential acceleration would yield a corresponding increase in the severe gust threat, that should spread southeast towards a portion of the Mid-MO Valley later this morning. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41649457 42029423 41879356 41459189 40799054 40319049 40129071 39909118 39989213 40399331 41429445 41649457 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with a large amplitude upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. This ridge will gradually breakdown on Sunday and Monday with more of a flat ridge by the middle of next week. Persistent northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the extended forecast period may result in some isolated severe weather threat. However, moisture in the Northern Plains will lack a Gulf of Mexico connection and thus, will likely be somewhat low quality, at least initially. Early next week, as lee troughing returns to the Plains and the low-level jet strengthens, the severe weather threat may increase somewhat. Overall, upper-level ridging and no clear strong troughs during the extended period, suggests any severe weather threat that materializes will likely remain somewhat localized this weekend and early next week. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1760 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1760 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Northwest to central SD and far south-central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310707Z - 310900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe gusts, including potential for significant severe, may occur as scattered storms mature over northwest into north-central South Dakota. Some uncertainty exists on timing of a sustained severe threat, so a watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...UDX VWP data confirm the presence of near 25-kt southerly lower-level jet which is aiding in convection developing across a portion of northwest into north-central SD. This appears to be occurring to the north/west of a weak surface cyclone in vicinity of Ziebach/Dewey counties. Upstream, a shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery near the Bighorn Mountains will likely enhance large-scale ascent later this morning. The bulk of evening CAM guidance suggests this will aid in a more sustained severe threat, but the HRW-ARW indicated a more earlier threat which is better timed to the ongoing development. The presence of a rather steep lapse rate environment and adequate deep-layer shear for supercells suggest that any sustained updrafts will have the potential to produce large hail and severe gusts, which may become significant. This should occur as convection impinges on increasingly larger buoyancy emanating north from south-central/southeast SD. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45430224 45880161 46240031 46019956 45499890 44819859 44319851 44029900 44010056 44250191 44880236 45430224 Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LWD TO 30 ENE DNS TO 35 W CID. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-007-015-027-039-049-051-053-073-077-099-117-121-123-125- 135-153-157-159-169-175-179-181-185-310940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR APPANOOSE BOONE CARROLL CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GREENE GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LNK TO 20 W SLB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761. ..GRAMS..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-073-075- 077-079-083-085-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-153-155- 157-159-161-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-310840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis... A upper low in the Illinois/Indiana vicinity Friday morning will move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night. A surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas... A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to strong instability is expected across much of the region as temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of severe wind gusts. ...Southern Arizona... Some monsoon moisture may move into southern Arizona on Friday which may lead to some weak to moderate instability as temperatures warm over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in some storm organization and may result in some isolated severe weather threat. At this time, confidence in storm coverage/intensity remains too low for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more