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MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north-central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573... Valid 310009Z - 310145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 in north-central North Dakota. The main concern is severe wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMBX shows a loosely organized cluster/line of storms tracking east-northeastward across portions of north-central North Dakota. Around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KMBX/KBIS VWP data) oriented perpendicular to the loosely organized cold pool and moderately unstable surface-based inflow should continue to support severe gusts (generally up to 70 mph) and instances of large hail with east-northeastward extent. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47360125 47960180 48200184 48450176 48580148 48660086 48530034 47959979 47569998 47340089 47360125 Read more

WW 574 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC 302200Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina * Effective this Tuesday evening from 600 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over east Tennessee will cross the mountains into northern Georgia and the western Carolinas this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Chattanooga TN to 25 miles south southeast of Spartanburg SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 570...WW 571...WW 572...WW 573... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CGI TO 15 N CGI TO 35 NNW HOP. ..KERR..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-127-153-310240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER MASSAC PULASKI KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221- 310240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TODD TRIGG MOC133-310240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... FOR NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...northern into central Georgia and adjacent portions of eastern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574... Valid 302327Z - 310130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may overspread much of the Greater Atlanta metro area through 9-10 PM EDT, accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A downburst associated with collapsing convection produced wind gusts to 54 kt at Chattanooga Metropolitan airport at 2216Z, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises up to at least 3.8 mb were recorded in the 23Z surface observations. This is within a broader cold pool advancing across the higher terrain of southeastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and northeastern Georgia. Near the leading edge of the outflow associated with the stronger downburst, convection has re-intensified some in a small cluster. Aided by wind profiles including light westerly low-level flow beneath 20-30 kt north-northwesterly mid/upper flow, modest southwesterly system relative inflow may continue to support strongest renewed convective development south/southwestward across much of the Greater Atlanta metro through 01-02Z. Given the 30 kt forward propagation, most peak gusts may remain on the order of 30-40 kt on the larger-scale, but locally stronger downbursts remain possible. ..Kerr.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 34578371 34178347 33548345 33008376 32658443 32628512 33088544 34318534 34438501 34388460 34448405 34578371 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...Northern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This will likely support continued supercell development this evening into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S., with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient. As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast Nebraska into far western Iowa. ...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians... The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky, with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact should be accompanied by a wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 Read more

MD 1754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302351Z - 310115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into far southwest KS into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately ahead of a lee trough/dryline extending across the TX/OK Panhandles into far southwest KS. Theses storms are in an environment characterized by surface temperatures in the low 100s F and dewpoints in the lower 60s. While vertical winds shear is not particularly strong (around 20-25 kt effective shear), the well-mixed boundary layer and somewhat focused mesoscale ascent could support an isolated strong/severe wind gust and perhaps marginally severe hail with any longer-lived storms. The risk appears too localized for a watch consideration. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36430237 37090186 37420129 37730048 37709989 37529960 37049965 36660049 36280107 35850158 35700198 35730227 35920253 36140248 36430237 Read more