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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley. ...Eastern Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...Missouri... Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy. ...Upper Midwest... Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration. ...Southern Plains... Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

Southeast Texas reported hotter temperatures and scattered showers. The weather also helped with forage and hay production for most areas with pastures being cut and grazed, and significant yields were being reported. Sorghum and corn were ready to be harvested. Watermelon harvest was delayed due to late planting. Rice looked good, and the break in the weather the past week helped plants start the flowering stage. Cotton looked good in most areas but needed rain to continue good crop growth. There were no insect pest issues. Range and pasture conditions varied from poor to excellent with soil moisture levels ranging from very short to adequate. Livestock looked good in most areas and cattle prices remained strong. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 2, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS. ...Central to northern High Plains... To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS. ...Central to northern High Plains... To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS. ...Central to northern High Plains... To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS. ...Central to northern High Plains... To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS. ...Central to northern High Plains... To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle. ...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form within a day or two while it moves northward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. However, this system should move
over cooler waters on Friday, preventing further development
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

The Keechelus Lake boat launch and access road closed on July 8 due to drought and low water conditions. KNDO-TV (Kennewick, Wash.), July 2, 2024

Scarce rain since mid-May and increasing heat has damaged crops in Edgecombe County. The president of the Edgecombe County Farm Bureau stated that the corn will yield little to nothing and that no amount of rain can revive it. WITN-TV NBC 7 Greenville (N.C.), July 2, 2024

MD 1518 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... FOR NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...Northern MO...Western IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498... Valid 030407Z - 030530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will accompany convection as it propagates across northeast MO into western IL. DISCUSSION...Weak MCV has evolved within remnant convection that tracked across eastern KS into northwest MO, just east of Kansas City over Ray County. This feature may be partly responsible for organized squall line that currently extends from near Sedalia to Randolph County. Larger MCS appears to be evolving along the nose of LLJ which is forecast to translate downstream into central IL later tonight. This activity is currently propagating through the main instability axis which should continue to support robust updrafts, at least into extreme western IL before weaker buoyancy is encountered. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with this cluster of storms. ..Darrow.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 40009254 39819037 39179067 38599223 38549363 40009254 Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MLI TO 35 NE PIA. ..SQUITIERI..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC057-095-143-169-030340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON KNOX PEORIA SCHUYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MLI TO 35 NE PIA. ..SQUITIERI..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC057-095-143-169-030340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON KNOX PEORIA SCHUYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MLI TO 35 NE PIA. ..SQUITIERI..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC057-095-143-169-030340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON KNOX PEORIA SCHUYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more