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WW 500 SEVERE TSTM IL 030030Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern into Central Illinois * Effective this Tuesday evening from 730 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east into the Watch area this evening. The more intense portions of the line may yield a risk for 50-65 mph gusts and potential wind damage. The severe risk will likely lessen with eastward extent as the thunderstorm band encounters weaker instability farther east in Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Rockford IL to 50 miles southwest of Peoria IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...WW 499... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022327Z - 030130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A QLCS is moving eastward across eastern IA and is approaching the MS River. Though buoyancy and shear decreases rapidly with eastern extent, the approaching QLCS may persist with a risk of isolated 50-60 mph wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...The ongoing QLCS, including a pronounced line-end mesovortex accompanied by a rear-inflow jet, continues to track eastward across eastern IA with a history of 60-80 mph wind gusts and reported tornadoes. The QLCS mesovortex is preceded by strong low-level shear, characterized by 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH (per 23Z mesoanalysis and the latest DVN VAD profiler data). As such, the QLCS may remain organized as it crosses the MS river in a few hours. However, buoyancy decreases/MLCINH increases substantially with eastward extent, which could weaken the MCS substantially by the time it enters IL. As such, continued severe potential east of the current bounds of WWs 497-498 is a bit uncertain. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for continued severe gust potential and subsequent need for a WW issuance as the QLCS begins to exit the ongoing watches. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39909085 40509029 41478974 42348972 42848969 42968946 42648884 41908847 40968868 40308914 39908981 39759042 39909085 Read more

MD 1517 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498... Valid 030002Z - 030130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 continues. SUMMARY...Convective threat will increase across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri this evening. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of central Plains short-wave trough is beginning to affect the lower MO Valley region. Height falls will glance northeast KS/northern MO this evening and this should encourage a gradual expansion of convection along/ahead of surface front. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to strengthen into northern MO in response to the approaching short wave. This is expected to aid a potential MCS that will sag southeast across a reservoir of strong buoyancy (3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Primary risk remains damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38509576 39829378 40179163 39689145 39149393 38139533 38509576 Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVK TO 35 SE ICT TO 35 W CNU TO 25 NNE EMP. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK OKC003-053-071-030140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVK TO 35 SE ICT TO 35 W CNU TO 25 NNE EMP. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK OKC003-053-071-030140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVK TO 35 SE ICT TO 35 W CNU TO 25 NNE EMP. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK OKC003-053-071-030140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVK TO 35 SE ICT TO 35 W CNU TO 25 NNE EMP. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK OKC003-053-071-030140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVK TO 35 SE ICT TO 35 W CNU TO 25 NNE EMP. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK OKC003-053-071-030140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 499 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 022200Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster or two of thunderstorms will move east-northeast across the Watch area through the evening. Some of the stronger downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Emporia KS to 30 miles west southwest of Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO 20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121- 127-137-175-177-195-205-030140- MO Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO 20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121- 127-137-175-177-195-205-030140- MO Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO 20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121- 127-137-175-177-195-205-030140- MO Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO 20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121- 127-137-175-177-195-205-030140- MO Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO 20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121- 127-137-175-177-195-205-030140- MO Read more

WW 498 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 022140Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Illinois Eastern Kansas West-Central and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the early to mid evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger storms may evolve into supercells, in addition to organized line segments. A tornado is possible with any intense supercell or embedded circulation within a convective line, but the primary forecast hazards will be 60-75 mph gusts capable of wind damage and large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Emporia KS to 25 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more