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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CDJ TO 35 NNW IRK TO 15 WNW BRL TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 NNE DBQ. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC057-111-030140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC001-045-197-199-211-030140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CDJ TO 35 NNW IRK TO 15 WNW BRL TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 NNE DBQ. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC057-111-030140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC001-045-197-199-211-030140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CDJ TO 35 NNW IRK TO 15 WNW BRL TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 NNE DBQ. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC057-111-030140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC001-045-197-199-211-030140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CDJ TO 35 NNW IRK TO 15 WNW BRL TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 NNE DBQ. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC057-111-030140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC001-045-197-199-211-030140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CDJ TO 35 NNW IRK TO 15 WNW BRL TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 NNE DBQ. ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC057-111-030140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES LEE MOC001-045-197-199-211-030140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK SCHUYLER Read more

WW 497 TORNADO IA IL MO 022010Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern, Central, and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for a couple of tornadoes and large hail generally 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph will likely become the primary threat by this evening as thunderstorms grow into a bowing cluster. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 40 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0500 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0500 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1515 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 497... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 497... Valid 022309Z - 030015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...A focused corridor of 60-85 mph wind gusts is expected with a bowing line segment across eastern IA. DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to move across eastern IA, with a pronounced line-end mesovortex currently located over Johnson County, IA, tracking eastward. Immediately south of the mesovortex is a rear-inflow jet, where a measured 81 mph wind gust was recently reported and where a tornado was also reported. The current expectation is that this coupled mesovortex/rear-inflow jet structure will progress within the QLCS for at least the next hour or two, accompanied by a narrow but focused swath of severe gusts in the 60-85 mph range. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN... LAT...LON 41739161 41939083 41829014 41699005 41489033 41399086 41449124 41739161 Read more

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022327Z - 030130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A QLCS is moving eastward across eastern IA and is approaching the MS River. Though buoyancy and shear decreases rapidly with eastern extent, the approaching QLCS may persist with a risk of isolated 50-60 mph wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...The ongoing QLCS, including a pronounced line-end mesovortex accompanied by a rear-inflow jet, continues to track eastward across eastern IA with a history of 60-80 mph wind gusts and reported tornadoes. The QLCS mesovortex is preceded by strong low-level shear, characterized by 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH (per 23Z mesoanalysis and the latest DVN VAD profiler data). As such, the QLCS may remain organized as it crosses the MS river in a few hours. However, buoyancy decreases/MLCINH increases substantially with eastward extent, which could weaken the MCS substantially by the time it enters IL. As such, continued severe potential east of the current bounds of WWs 497-498 is a bit uncertain. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for continued severe gust potential and subsequent need for a WW issuance as the QLCS begins to exit the ongoing watches. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39909085 40509029 41478974 42348972 42848969 42968946 42648884 41908847 40968868 40308914 39908981 39759042 39909085 Read more

MD 1515 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 497... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 497... Valid 022309Z - 030015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...A focused corridor of 60-85 mph wind gusts is expected with a bowing line segment across eastern IA. DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to move across eastern IA, with a pronounced line-end mesovortex currently located over Johnson County, IA, tracking eastward. Immediately south of the mesovortex is a rear-inflow jet, where a measured 81 mph wind gust was recently reported and where a tornado was also reported. The current expectation is that this coupled mesovortex/rear-inflow jet structure will progress within the QLCS for at least the next hour or two, accompanied by a narrow but focused swath of severe gusts in the 60-85 mph range. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN... LAT...LON 41739161 41939083 41829014 41699005 41489033 41399086 41449124 41739161 Read more

MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499... Valid 022258Z - 030000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499 continues. SUMMARY...A focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts (50-70 mph) may accompany a rapidly propagating bowing MCS across southern KS. DISCUSSION...An MCS has recently organized across southern KS over the past couple of hours. This MCS has recently shown some bowing structure, with rapid propagation speeds potentially exceeding 50 mph, and several estimated and measured severe gusts reported. Preceding this bow-echo MCS is a deep, mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates per 22Z mesoanalysis. This favorable boundary layer may foster efficient evaporative cooling to support a focused corridor (through the axis of steepest low-level lapse rates) of strong to severe gusts within the 50-70 mph range for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37189735 37909715 38359670 38499616 38269590 37789582 37349610 37149654 37189735 Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW AVK TO 45 SSW ICT TO 5 SE ICT TO 20 ENE HUT TO 15 NE SLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514 ..MOORE..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-035-049-073-079-115-191-030040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARVEY MARION SUMNER OKC003-053-071-030040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK TO 15 WNW FLV TO 5 SE LWD. ..MOORE..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-030040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC003-031-045-059-087-091-103-111-121-127-139-177-197-209- 030040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-089-095-101-103-107-111- 115-117-121-127-137-165-175-177-195-205-030040- MO Read more

WW 498 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 022140Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Illinois Eastern Kansas West-Central and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the early to mid evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger storms may evolve into supercells, in addition to organized line segments. A tornado is possible with any intense supercell or embedded circulation within a convective line, but the primary forecast hazards will be 60-75 mph gusts capable of wind damage and large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Emporia KS to 25 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE STJ TO 45 E LWD TO 15 SE OTM TO 30 ENE OTM TO 25 SE CID TO 40 NW DBQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 ..MOORE..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-031-045-051-057-087-097-101-105-111-115-139-163-177-183- 030040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CEDAR CLINTON DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JONES LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON Read more