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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific
basin far southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure
is expected to form from this system within the next day or two,
and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of
this week while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more