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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 08:36:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 08:36:39 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 092 WTPZ41 KNHC 310834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A 0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The official forecast track is close to the consensus aids. Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 45(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 125W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 42(72) 1(73) X(73) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) 1(35) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 52(70) 5(75) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 4(38) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 459 WTPZ31 KNHC 310832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 122.3W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 122.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Aug 30 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.4, -122.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more