Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 14:38:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 15:21:52 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 14:38:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 14:38:03 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2 pass show a curved band wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, along with a burst of deep convection developing over the center where cloud tops are near -80 C. The convective banding now wraps more than halfway around the circulation, which, along with Dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and up to 3.0/45 kt from SAB, supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Kiko is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to remain in place throughout the 5-day forecast period, maintaining a general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and into the central Pacific basin by late this week. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous forecast and remains close to the consensus aids. Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear favor steady strengthening during the next couple of days. Kiko is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by around 48 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the cyclone’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the potential entrainment of mid-level dry air, could limit any additional significant intensification. Also, any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters and further inhibit strengthening. The intensity forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 14.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 10 31(41) 1(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 22(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) 1(38) X(38) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 41(73) 1(74) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 1(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 43(61) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM KIKO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 123.1W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 123.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM KIKO... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.4, -123.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311431 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.1W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.1W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located in the east Pacific basin,
far southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure
is expected to form from this system within the next day or two,
and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of
this week while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 08:36:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 09:21:55 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more