Aggregator

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 125.5W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.1, -125.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow (Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which may be severe. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon. Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow (Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which may be severe. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon. Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow (Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which may be severe. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon. Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow (Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which may be severe. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon. Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more