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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 15:22:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 Kiko has intensified overnight and remains a compact storm. A timely GMI microwave pass revealed a closed cyan ring around the center in the 37-GHz image. The system’s compact size and improving core structure suggest that the inner core is consolidating, which often precedes rapid intensification. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB are 3.0/45 kt and from SAB are 4.0/64 kt, while objective estimates have increased into the 40–50 kt range. Given this range of data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more westward track through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually begin to turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains considerable spread in along-track speed among the models. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and continues to lean heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which are near the faster side of the guidance envelope. Despite somewhat drier mid-level conditions along its forecast track, the combination of light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and Kiko’s small compact core should allow for strengthening in the short term. Rapid intensification probabilities from the SHIPS guidance have increased over the past 24 hours, with around a 30–40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours. As a result, the official forecast reflects the potential for this during the first 24 hours, placing the intensity near the upper end of the guidance envelope during that period. Kiko’s intensity is forecast to peak near 85 kt in about 48 hours and then hold steady through day 5, which is near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 126.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 1 24(25) 31(56) 6(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 58(66) 9(75) 1(76) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 7(37) X(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 31(74) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 126.3W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 14.0, -126.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more